Remo v Botafogo prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RemoDrawBotafogo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Botafogo 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Botafogo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Remo 35%, draw 27%, Botafogo 38%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Remo v BotafogoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Remo win35%

Draw27%

Botafogo win38%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueEstadio Evandro Almeida

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Remo

Botafogo

6Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
19	Remo	32	−16	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botafogo winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Botafogo a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Remo v Botafogo~~1.23 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 14 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 26 v 39~~19 v 11

~~The market · Botafogo win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Botafogo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Remo win	35%	37%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Botafogo win	38%	36%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Remo or draw	62%	64%	−2
Remo clean sheet	28%	–	–
Botafogo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.3 10.1 6.7 2.9 1 9.6 12.8 8.2 3.6 2 6.1 7.8 5.0 2.2 3 2.5 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Remo down, Botafogo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,216 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 316 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Remo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Botafogo away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Remo, 1.30 for Botafogo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BOT 1–2 REM · REM 0–1 BOT · BOT 3–0 REM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 14 Sept

REMO

LLDDDL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

BOTAFOGO

WLLDWL3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	32	+34	69
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
5	Fluminense	32	+9	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	32	+5	50
8	Santos	32	+2	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	+1	41
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	−6	38
14	Vitoria	32	−11	38
15	Mirassol	32	−8	37
16	Internacional	32	−4	35
17	Corinthians	32	−8	33
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	31	−31	21