RB Bragantino v Cruzeiro prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 05:57

RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro RB BRAGANTINO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RB Bragantino win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.544

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RB Bragantino win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: RB Bragantino was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF RB Bragantino v Cruzeiro
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Guzman Rodriguez · RB Bragantino
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' RB Bragantino 1–0 Cruzeiro · Lucas Henrique Barbosa
15′RB Bragantino ahead on 13′ through Lucas Henrique Barbosa. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
15′We published RB Bragantino at 40%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' RB Bragantino win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
20′We published RB Bragantino at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' RB Bragantino win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
20′🟨 YELLOW · 18' William · Cruzeiro
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' RB Bragantino 2–0 Cruzeiro · Lucas Henrique Barbosa
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' RB Bragantino 2–0 Cruzeiro · Lucas Henrique Barbosa
22′Lucas Henrique Barbosa scores for RB Bragantino on 20′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' RB Bragantino win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
23′We published RB Bragantino at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–2
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Ryan Augusto · RB Bragantino
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' RB Bragantino 3–0 Cruzeiro · William
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' RB Bragantino 3–0 Cruzeiro · Fernando dos Santos Pedro
32′30′ and it is 3–0: Fernando dos Santos Pedro on the scoresheet for RB Bragantino. 3–0 · 98–1–0
33′We published RB Bragantino at 40%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
34′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 98–1–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' RB Bragantino 3–1 Cruzeiro · Eric Ramires
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' RB Bragantino 3–1 Cruzeiro · Zé Lucas
45′HALF-TIME RB Bragantino 3–1 Cruzeiro
46′SECOND HALF RB Bragantino 3–1 Cruzeiro
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cruzeiro · On: Fabrício Bruno · Off: William
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cruzeiro · On: Matías Viña · Off: Gabriel Rojas
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' RB Bragantino · On: Eduardo Santos · Off: Gustavo Marques Alves dos Santos
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cruzeiro · On: Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira · Off: João Marcelo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cruzeiro · On: Matheus Henrique · Off: Zé Lucas
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' RB Bragantino · On: Matheus Fernandes · Off: Wallace Yan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' RB Bragantino · On: Isidro Pitta · Off: Eduardo Sasha
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' RB Bragantino · On: Gabriel Girotto · Off: Eric Ramires
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Felipe Morais · Cruzeiro
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cruzeiro · On: Bruno Rodrigues · Off: Felipe Morais
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' RB Bragantino · On: Jose Herrera · Off: Lucas Henrique Barbosa
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' RB Bragantino 4–1 Cruzeiro · Zé Lucas
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' RB Bragantino 4–1 Cruzeiro · Fernando dos Santos Pedro
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' RB Bragantino 3–2 Cruzeiro · Zé Lucas
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' RB Bragantino 3–2 Cruzeiro · Matheus Henrique
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro · Matheus Henrique
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro · Jose Herrera
FTFULL TIME RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro
FTRB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro · RB Bragantino win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

RB Bragantino win40%

Draw28%

Cruzeiro win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 01:00

VenueEstadio Cicero de Souza Marques

RefereeSavio Pereira Sampaio

Line-ups

RB Bragantino

4-2-3-1

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

RB Bragantino

Cruzeiro

6Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
11	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

RB Bragantino

4-2-3-1

18 Tiago Volpi

52 Ryan Tavares

16 Gustavo Marques

2 Guzmán Rodríguez

29 Juninho Capixaba

7 Eric Ramires

5 Fabinho

21 Lucas Barbosa

47 Wallace

11 Fernando

8 Eduardo Sasha

Coach · Vagner Mancini

Substitutes

35 · Matheus Fernandes

6 · Gabriel

3 · Eduardo Santos

19 · Bruninho

32 · J. Herrera

17 · Vinicius

9 · I. Pitta

22 · Gustavinho

23 · A. Sant'Anna

1 · Cleiton

15 · I. Sosa

12 · Vanderlan

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1

81 Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa

12 William

43 João Marcelo

34 Jonathan

27 G. Rojas

5 Zé Lucas

8 Gerson

99 K. Arroyo

10 Matheus Pereira

38 Felipe Morais

19 Kaio Jorge

Coach · Artur Jorge

Substitutes

2 · Kauã Moraes

20 · Wesley Gassova

11 · Marquinhos

1 · Cássio

9 · Bruno Rodrigues

97 · L. Rodríguez

16 · Lucas Silva

15 · Fabrício Bruno

70 · Kenji

25 · L. Villalba

6 · M. Viña

7 · Matheus Henrique

Our number · rb bragantino winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make RB Bragantino a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rb bragantino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RB Bragantino win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Cruzeiro win	32%	29%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	58%	−16
Both teams to score	48%	60%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	68%	79%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	21%	36%	−14
RB Bragantino or draw	68%	71%	−3
RB Bragantino clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cruzeiro clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.7 10.2 5.7 2.1 1 11.7 13.2 7.1 2.6 2 7.5 8.2 4.5 3 3.2 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RB Bragantino down, Cruzeiro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,196 Serie A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 296 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.14 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RB Bragantino at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cruzeiro away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for RB Bragantino, 1.10 for Cruzeiro. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 00:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CRU 2–1 RBB · CRU 2–1 RBB · RBB 1–0 CRU · RBB 1–1 CRU

Form · last six in Serie A

RB BRAGANTINO

LLDLLD1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

CRUZEIRO

WLWLWW2–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	+30	63
3	Fluminense	30	+11	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Bahia	30	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	+6	47
8	Santos	30	+1	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	0	39
10	Coritiba	29	−10	38
11	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
12	Vitoria	30	−11	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	30	−10	33
16	Internacional	30	−5	32
17	Corinthians	30	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18