RB Bragantino v Chapecoense-sc prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RB BragantinoDrawChapecoense-sc

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · RB Bragantino 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RB Bragantino are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RB Bragantino 64%, draw 21%, Chapecoense-sc 15%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on RB Bragantino v Chapecoense-scBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

RB Bragantino win64%

Draw21%

Chapecoense-sc win15%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueEstadio Cicero de Souza Marques

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RB Bragantino

Chapecoense-sc

10Days since last match11

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rb bragantino winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

64% The market72%

Us64%

~~Market~~72%

We make RB Bragantino a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RB Bragantino v Chapecoense-sc~~2.06 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 41 v 18~~10 v 20

~~The market · RB Bragantino win~~72% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RB Bragantino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RB Bragantino win	64%	72%	−8
Draw	21%	18%	+3
Chapecoense-sc win	15%	10%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	49%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
RB Bragantino or draw	85%	90%	−5
RB Bragantino clean sheet	42%	–	–
Chapecoense-sc clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.6 4.6 2.1 1 10.8 9.7 4.2 2 11.1 9.7 4.3 3 7.6 6.6 2.9 4 4.0 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RB Bragantino down, Chapecoense-sc across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,210 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 310 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RB Bragantino at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chapecoense-sc away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for RB Bragantino, 0.88 for Chapecoense-sc. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–2 RBB · RBB 1–2 CHA · CHA 0–3 RBB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

RB BRAGANTINO

DLLDWD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

CHAPECOENSE-SC

WLDLLL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18