Palmeiras v RB Bragantino prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PalmeirasDrawRB Bragantino

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Palmeiras 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palmeiras are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Palmeiras 64%, draw 22%, RB Bragantino 14%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Palmeiras v RB BragantinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Palmeiras win64%

Draw22%

RB Bragantino win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueNubank Parque

RefereeBraulio da Silva Machado

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Palmeiras

RB Bragantino

2Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palmeiras winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

64% The market62%

Us64%

~~Market~~62%

We make Palmeiras a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Palmeiras v RB Bragantino~~1.92 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 66 v 41~~2 v 10

~~The market · Palmeiras win~~62% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Palmeiras win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Palmeiras win	64%	62%	+2
Draw	22%	22%	0
RB Bragantino win	14%	16%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Palmeiras or draw	86%	84%	+2
Palmeiras clean sheet	46%	–	–
RB Bragantino clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.1 5.2 2.1 1 12.8 10.2 3.9 2 12.3 9.5 3.7 3 7.9 6.1 2.4 4 3.8 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Palmeiras down, RB Bragantino across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,210 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 310 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Palmeiras at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). RB Bragantino away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Palmeiras, 0.78 for RB Bragantino. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RBB 0–1 PAL · PAL 5–1 RBB · RBB 1–2 PAL · PAL 0–0 RBB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

PALMEIRAS

DWDWWW0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–0

RB BRAGANTINO

DLLDWD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18