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Palmeiras v Corinthians

Palmeiras

4–1Full time

Corinthians

Serie A · SUN 11 OCT · Nubank Parque

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians PALMEIRAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palmeiras win~~62%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.225

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 54 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palmeiras win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Palmeiras 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
17′16′ and it is 1–0: Alexander Barboza on the scoresheet for Palmeiras. 1–0 · 85–12–4
20′We said Palmeiras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–4
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
31′16′ and it is 1–0: Alexander Barboza on the scoresheet for Palmeiras. 1–0 · 85–12–3
32′16′ and it is 1–0: Alexander Barboza on the scoresheet for Palmeiras. 1–0 · 85–12–3
35′We said Palmeiras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
36′We said Palmeiras at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
45′Palmeiras ahead on 45′ through Agustin Giay. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 51' Palmeiras 4–0 Corinthians · Agustin Giay
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Corinthians · On: Allan · Off: André Carrillo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Corinthians · On: Vitinho · Off: Breno Bidon
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Gabriel Paulista · Corinthians
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Vitinho · Corinthians
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Palmeiras · On: Maurício Magalhães Prado · Off: José Manuel López Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Palmeiras · On: Emiliano Martínez · Off: Lucas Evangelista
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Palmeiras · On: Ramon Sosa · Off: Vitor Roque
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Corinthians · On: André Ramalho · Off: André Corrected
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Corinthians · On: Pedro Raul · Off: Yuri Alberto
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Gustavo Gómez · Palmeiras
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Palmeiras · On: Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho · Off: Ramon Sosa Corrected
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
81′PENALTY MISSED · 81' Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho · Palmeiras
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Corinthians · On: Dieguinho · Off: Raniele
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Palmeiras · On: Bruno Fuchs · Off: Gustavo Gómez
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Palmeiras win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians · Agustin Giay
FTFULL TIME Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians
FTPalmeiras 4–1 Corinthians · Palmeiras win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Palmeiras win62%

Draw23%

Corinthians win15%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:30

VenueNubank Parque

RefereeAnderson Daronco

Line-ups

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

Corinthians

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Palmeiras

Corinthians

2Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Palmeiras	29	+27	60
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

1 Carlos Miguel

26 Murilo

15 Gustavo Gómez

2 Alexander Barboza

4 Agustín Giay

8 Andreas Pereira

30 Lucas Evangelista

22 Joaquín Piquerez

42 José Manuel López

11 Jhon Arias

9 Vitor Roque

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · Mauricio

32 · Emiliano Martínez

19 · Ramón Sosa

10 · Paulinho

3 · Bruno Fuchs

14 · Marcelo Lomba

12 · Khellven

56 · Arthur Gabriel

17 · Marlon Freitas

50 · Luis Pacheco

48 · Larson

7 · Felipe Anderson

Corinthians

4-1-3-2

1 Hugo Souza

2 Matheuzinho

3 Gabriel Paulista

13 Gustavo Henrique

21 Matheus Bidu

14 Raniele

7 Breno Bidon

19 André Carrillo

49 André Luiz

9 Yuri Alberto

10 Memphis Depay

Coach · –

Substitutes

29 · Allan

11 · Vitinho

5 · André Ramalho

18 · Pedro Raul

61 · Dieguinho

51 · Kauê Camargo

4 · João Pedro Tchoca

55 · Iago Machado

26 · Fabrizio Angileri

35 · Charles

77 · Jesse Lingard

56 · Gui Negão

Our number · palmeiras winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

62% The market58%

Us62%

~~Market~~58%

We make Palmeiras a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · palmeiras win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 62% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Palmeiras win	62%	58%	+4
Draw	23%	26%	−2
Corinthians win	15%	17%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−3
Palmeiras or draw	85%	83%	+2
Palmeiras clean sheet	48%	–	–
Corinthians clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 8.7 5.9 2.3 1 14.4 10.8 3.9 2 12.7 9.3 3.4 3 7.5 5.4 4 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Palmeiras down, Corinthians across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,190 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 290 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.82 goals a meeting; 3 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Palmeiras at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Corinthians away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Palmeiras, 0.73 for Corinthians. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.82

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 11

~~Both scored~~4 of 11

~~Last meetings~~COR 0–0 PAL · COR 1–1 PAL · PAL 2–0 COR · COR 2–0 PAL

Form · last six in Serie A

PALMEIRAS

WDDWDW4–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

CORINTHIANS

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	29	+32	61
2	Palmeiras	29	+27	60
3	Fluminense	29	+12	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
6	Bahia	29	+7	46
7	Atletico-MG	29	+5	44
8	Santos	29	+2	42
9	Coritiba	29	−10	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	−1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18