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Palmeiras v Bahia

Palmeiras

1–0Full time

Bahia

Serie A · FRI 9 OCT · Nubank Parque

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Palmeiras win62%

Draw22%

Bahia win16%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 23:36

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 01:30

Venue · Nubank Parque

Referee · Braulio da Silva Machado

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

1 Carlos Miguel

26 Murilo

15 Gustavo Gómez

2 Alexander Barboza

12 Khellven

8 Andreas Pereira

17 Marlon Freitas

56 Arthur Gabriel

42 José Manuel López

30 Lucas Evangelista

9 Vitor Roque

Coach · Abel Ferreira

Substitutes

11 · Jhon Arias

19 · Ramón Sosa

7 · Felipe Anderson

14 · Marcelo Lomba

4 · Agustín Giay

3 · Bruno Fuchs

22 · Joaquín Piquerez

32 · Emiliano Martínez

50 · Luis Pacheco

48 · Larson

37 · Fabiano Rodrigues Pereira

18 · Mauricio

Bahia

4-3-3

1 Ronaldo

31 Román Gómez

33 David Duarte

4 Kanu

46 Luciano Juba

6 Jean Lucas

5 Nicolás Acevedo

11 Rodrigo Nestor

99 Cristian Olivera

9 Alejo Véliz

16 Erick Pulga

Coach · Rogério Ceni

Substitutes

14 · Erick

8 · Caio Alexandre

7 · Ademir

12 · Willian José

23 · Mateo Sanabria

17 · Guido Herrera

44 · Marcos Victor

3 · Marco Moreno

66 · José Guilherme

15 · Michel Araújo

10 · Everton Ribeiro

27 · Everaldo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

1 Carlos Miguel

26 Murilo

15 Gustavo Gómez

2 Alexander Barboza

12 Khellven

8 Andreas Pereira

17 Marlon Freitas

56 Arthur Gabriel

42 José Manuel López

30 Lucas Evangelista

9 Vitor Roque

Coach · Abel Ferreira

Substitutes

11 · Jhon Arias

19 · Ramón Sosa

7 · Felipe Anderson

14 · Marcelo Lomba

4 · Agustín Giay

3 · Bruno Fuchs

22 · Joaquín Piquerez

32 · Emiliano Martínez

50 · Luis Pacheco

48 · Larson

37 · Fabiano Rodrigues Pereira

18 · Mauricio

Bahia

4-3-3

1 Ronaldo

31 Román Gómez

33 David Duarte

4 Kanu

46 Luciano Juba

6 Jean Lucas

5 Nicolás Acevedo

11 Rodrigo Nestor

99 Cristian Olivera

9 Alejo Véliz

16 Erick Pulga

Coach · Rogério Ceni

Substitutes

14 · Erick

8 · Caio Alexandre

7 · Ademir

12 · Willian José

23 · Mateo Sanabria

17 · Guido Herrera

44 · Marcos Victor

3 · Marco Moreno

66 · José Guilherme

15 · Michel Araújo

10 · Everton Ribeiro

27 · Everaldo

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · palmeiras winPublished 8 Oct 23:36

62% The market61%

Us62%

~~Market~~61%

We make Palmeiras a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Palmeiras win	62%	61%	+1
Draw	22%	22%	0
Bahia win	16%	17%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	60%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Palmeiras or draw	84%	83%	+1
Palmeiras clean sheet	43%	–	–
Bahia clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.6 5.3 2.3 1 11.9 10.4 4.4 2 11.4 9.7 4.1 3 7.3 6.1 2.6 4 3.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Palmeiras down, Bahia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,184 Serie A matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 284 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.89 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Palmeiras at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bahia away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Palmeiras, 0.85 for Bahia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.89

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BAH 1–2 PAL · BAH 1–0 PAL · PAL 0–1 BAH · BAH 1–2 PAL

Form · last six in Serie A

PALMEIRAS

LWDDWD2–3 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

BAHIA

DWWWWL3–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	28	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	28	+5	43
8	Santos	28	+2	41
9	Coritiba	28	−6	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	28	+1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	−6	34
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	29	−15	24
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Palmeiras

Bahia

Match statistics

Line-ups

Palmeiras

Bahia

Head to head

Form · last six in Serie A

The table