Internacional v Botafogo prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:01

Internacional 3–0 Botafogo INTERNACIONAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Internacional win~~42%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.513

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.424

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Internacional win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Internacional v Botafogo
2′Much as we predicted: Internacional was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–31
31′Internacional find the net on 30′. 0–0 · 37–35–29
33′We published Internacional at 42%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
33′⚽ GOAL · 30' Internacional 1–0 Botafogo
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Internacional win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
34′Matheus Bahia scores for Internacional on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
43′42′: José Carlos Ferreira Júnior on the scoresheet for Internacional, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
43′We published Internacional at 42%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Internacional 2–0 Botafogo · José Carlos Ferreira Júnior
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Internacional win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Internacional 2–0 Botafogo
45′SECOND HALF Internacional 2–0 Botafogo
51′We published Internacional at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Botafogo · On: Júnior Santos · Off: Cristian Medina
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Botafogo · On: domingos andrade · Off: Allan
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Álvaro Montoro · Botafogo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Botafogo · On: Arthur Cabral · Off: Tiquinho Soares
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Botafogo · On: Hakim Ziyech · Off: Matheus Martins
67′We published Internacional at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Internacional 3–0 Botafogo
68′Internacional ahead on 66′ through Alexandro Bernabéi. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Botafogo · On: Huguinho · Off: Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Internacional · On: Paulo Lucas Santos de Paula · Off: Thiago Maia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Internacional · On: joao victor · Off: Alan Patrick
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Nahuel Ferraresi · Botafogo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Internacional · On: Bruno Henrique · Off: Ronaldo da Silva Souza
90′Full time, 3–0. We called Internacional at 42% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Marçal · Botafogo
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Internacional · On: João Bezerra · Off: Alerrandro
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Internacional · On: Calebe · Off: Alexandro Bernabéi
FTFULL TIME Internacional 3–0 Botafogo
FTInternacional 3–0 Botafogo · Internacional win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Internacional are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Internacional 42%, draw 27%, Botafogo 31%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Internacional v BotafogoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Internacional win42%

Draw27%

Botafogo win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueEstádio Beira Rio

RefereeDavi de Oliveira Lacerda

Line-ups

Internacional

4-2-3-1

Botafogo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Internacional

Botafogo

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
17	Internacional	31	−7	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Internacional

4-2-3-1

22 Kauan

35 B. Aguirre

3 G. Maripán

18 Juninho

6 Matheus Bahia

16 Ronaldo

29 Thiago Maia

15 Bruno Gomes

10 Alan Patrick

26 A. Bernabéi

9 Alerrandro

Coach · Eduardo Baptista

Substitutes

49 · J. Bezerra

44 · Victor Joao

24 · Filipe Borba Sirio

7 · J. Carbonero

8 · Bruno Henrique

17 · N. Eliasson

30 · Calebe

43 · Henrique Menke

31 · Allex

27 · Paulinho

41 · Victor Gabriel

53 · Luiz Felipe

Botafogo

4-2-3-1

12 Gabriel Batista

2 Vitinho

5 N. Ferraresi

21 Marçal

13 Alex Telles

25 Allan

8 Danilo Santos

6 C. Medina

10 Álvaro Montoro

11 Matheus Martins

9 Tiquinho Soares

Coach · Tite

Substitutes

91 · Domingos Andrade

88 · Edenílson

19 · Arthur Cabral

34 · G. Justino

90 · Danilo

4 · M. Ponte

17 · Warleson

22 · H. Ziyech

29 · Paulinho

75 · Huguinho

7 · Júnior Santos

59 · Kauan Toledo

Our number · internacional winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market47%

Us42%

~~Market~~47%

We make Internacional a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Internacional v Botafogo~~1.36 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 39~~17 v 11

~~The market · Internacional win~~47% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Internacional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Internacional win	42%	47%	−5
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Botafogo win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Internacional or draw	69%	73%	−4
Internacional clean sheet	32%	–	–
Botafogo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.5 9.2 5.4 2.1 1 11.0 12.8 7.2 2.8 2 7.6 8.6 4.9 3 3.4 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Internacional down, Botafogo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,210 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 310 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Internacional at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Botafogo away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Internacional, 1.14 for Botafogo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BOT 2–2 INT · INT 2–0 BOT · BOT 4–0 INT · INT 0–1 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

INTERNACIONAL

LWLWDL2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

BOTAFOGO

DWLLDW1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18