Gremio v Internacional prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Gremio 1–1 Internacional GREMIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gremio win~~43%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.809

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gremio win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gremio was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
32′We said Gremio at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–62
34′Vitinho scores for Internacional on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
35′Vitinho scores for Internacional on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
39′We said Gremio at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–24–64
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 11–24–65
48′We said Gremio at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Gremio win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Internacional win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gremio win 13%)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Internacional · On: Matheus Bahia · Off: Alexandro Bernabéi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Gremio · On: Gustavo Martins · Off: Danilo Barbosa da Silva
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Gremio · On: Tetê · Off: Francis Amuzu
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gremio · On: Caio Paulista · Off: Marlon
FTFULL TIME Gremio 1–1 Internacional
FTGremio 1–1 Internacional · Gremio win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gremio win43%

Draw27%

Internacional win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:30

VenueArena do Grêmio

RefereeRodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Line-ups

Gremio

4-3-3

Internacional

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gremio

Internacional

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gremio

4-3-3

1 Weverton

27 Diego Caito

82 Wallace

4 Walter Kannemann

23 Marlon

10 Filip Krovinović

15 Danilo Barbosa

20 Mathias Villasanti

7 Cristian Pavón

95 Carlos Vinícius

9 Francis Amuzu

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · José Enamorado

22 · Martin Braithwaite

6 · Gustavo Martins

11 · Tetê

38 · Caio Paulista

12 · Gabriel Grando

54 · Pedro Gabriel

14 · Marcos Rocha

3 · Wagner Leonardo

18 · João Pedro

2 · Fabián Balbuena

5 · Juan Nardoni

8 · Erick Noriega

Internacional

3-4-2-1

12 Anthoni

15 Bruno Gomes

25 Gabriel Mercado

18 Jose Juninho

35 Braian Aguirre

5 Rodrigo Villagra

29 Thiago Maia

26 Alexandro Bernabei

28 Vitinho

9 Alerrandro

10 Alan Patrick

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · Bruno Henrique

7 · Johan Carbonero

27 · Paulinho Paula

6 · Matheus Bahia

4 · Félix Torres

23 · Matheus Cunha

41 · Victor Gabriel

44 · João Victor Alves de Morais Francisco

30 · Calebe Gonçalves

16 · Ronaldo

17 · Niclas Eliasson

49 · João Pedro Bezerra de Oliveira Lo

Our number · gremio winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market32%

Us43%

~~Market~~32%

We make Gremio a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gremio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gremio win	43%	32%	+11
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Internacional win	30%	38%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	42%	+4
Both teams to score	51%	49%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	67%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	23%	+2
Gremio or draw	70%	62%	+7
Gremio clean sheet	32%	–	–
Internacional clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.3 8.8 5.1 1 10.9 12.7 7.1 2.7 2 7.8 8.7 4.9 3 3.7 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gremio down, Internacional across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,190 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 290 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gremio at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Internacional away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Gremio, 1.13 for Internacional. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~INT 0–0 GRE · INT 2–3 GRE · GRE 1–1 INT · INT 1–0 GRE

Form · last six in Serie A

GREMIO

WLLLDD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

INTERNACIONAL

DLLWLW0–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	29	+32	61
2	Palmeiras	29	+27	60
3	Fluminense	29	+12	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
6	Bahia	29	+7	46
7	Atletico-MG	29	+5	44
8	Santos	29	+2	42
9	Coritiba	29	−10	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	−1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18