Gremio v Cruzeiro prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:30

Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro GREMIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gremio win~~39%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.663

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.487

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gremio win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gremio was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Gremio v Cruzeiro
17′We published Gremio at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
17′Gremio score on 17′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Gremio 1–0 Cruzeiro
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Gremio win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Gremio 1–1 Cruzeiro
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Gremio win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
23′Cruzeiro level it on 23′ through Kaio Jorge. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–33–32
37′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Gremio · On: Erick Noriega · Off: Danilo Barbosa da Silva
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Gremio win 33%)
40′We published Gremio at 39%. Our model now makes it 71%. 2–1 · 71–21–8
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Gremio 2–1 Cruzeiro
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Gremio win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Gremio win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
41′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 71–21–8
42′Cristian Pavón scores for Gremio on 41′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–8
45′SECOND HALF Gremio 2–1 Cruzeiro
48′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 30–43–27
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Gremio 2–2 Cruzeiro
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Gremio win: 39% at kick-off, 30% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Gremio win 30%)
49′48′: Kaio Jorge on the scoresheet for Cruzeiro, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 30–44–27
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Gremio win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
53′HALF-TIME Gremio 2–1 Cruzeiro
56′We said Gremio at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 2–2 · 27–48–25
61′We said Gremio at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–3 · 5–20–75
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Gremio 2–3 Cruzeiro
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Gremio win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Cruzeiro win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
62′Cruzeiro ahead on 61′ through Kaio Jorge. 2–3. 2–3 · 5–20–76
62′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 5–20–76
63′We said Gremio at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–76
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gremio · On: Martin Braithwaite · Off: Filip Krovinović
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cruzeiro · On: Matheus Henrique · Off: Zé Lucas
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' João Marcelo · Cruzeiro
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Matheus Pereira · Cruzeiro
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Gremio
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Walter Kannemann · Gremio
76′A red card for Gremio on 73′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–3 · 1–14–85
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Keny arroyo · Cruzeiro
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Cruzeiro · On: Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira · Off: Keny arroyo
80′João Marcelo scores for Cruzeiro on 80′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro · João Marcelo
81′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–1–99
87′Gremio have had 16 attempts to 11 and it is still 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gremio · On: Tetê · Off: Cristian Pavón
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gremio · On: José Enamorado · Off: Francis Amuzu
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cruzeiro · On: Bruno Rodrigues · Off: Gerson
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cruzeiro · On: Fabrício Bruno · Off: João Marcelo
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Cruzeiro · On: Luciano Rodríguez · Off: Kaio Jorge
96′Full time, 2–4. We called Gremio at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro
FTGremio 2–4 Cruzeiro · Gremio win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gremio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gremio 39%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Gremio v CruzeiroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gremio win39%

Draw27%

Cruzeiro win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueArena do Grêmio

RefereeJoao Vitor Gobi

Line-ups

Gremio

4-2-3-1

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gremio

Cruzeiro

7Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 13 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cruzeiro	30	+2	48
18	Gremio	30	−8	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gremio

4-2-3-1

1 Weverton

27 Diego Caito

6 Gustavo Martins

4 W. Kannemann

23 Marlon

20 M. Villasanti

15 Danilo Barbosa

7 C. Pavón

10 F. Krovinović

9 F. Amuzu

95 Carlos Vinícius

Coach · Renato Gaúcho

Substitutes

3 · Wagner Leonardo

11 · Tetê

22 · M. Braithwaite

54 · Pedro Gabriel

99 · J. Enamorado

12 · Gabriel Grando

18 · João Pedro

17 · Dodi

8 · E. Noriega

14 · Marcos Rocha

38 · Caio Paulista

2 · F. Balbuena

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1

81 Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa

12 William

43 João Marcelo

34 Jonathan

25 L. Villalba

5 Zé Lucas

29 L. Romero

99 K. Arroyo

10 Matheus Pereira

8 Gerson

19 Kaio Jorge

Coach · Artur Jorge

Substitutes

1 · Cássio

9 · Bruno Rodrigues

15 · Fabrício Bruno

23 · Fágner

2 · Kauã Moraes

16 · Lucas Silva

11 · Marquinhos

7 · Matheus Henrique

97 · L. Rodríguez

27 · G. Rojas

6 · M. Viña

20 · Wesley Gassova

Our number · gremio winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make Gremio a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gremio v Cruzeiro~~1.29 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 31 v 48~~18 v 7

~~The market · Gremio win~~31% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gremio win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gremio win	39%	31%	+8
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Cruzeiro win	34%	43%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
Both teams to score	50%	58%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Gremio or draw	66%	57%	+9
Gremio clean sheet	31%	–	–
Cruzeiro clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.7 9.8 5.9 2.4 1 10.7 13.0 7.6 3.0 2 7.0 8.2 4.9 3 3.0 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gremio down, Cruzeiro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,203 Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 303 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gremio at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cruzeiro away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Gremio, 1.19 for Cruzeiro. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CRU 2–0 GRE · GRE 0–1 CRU · CRU 4–1 GRE · CRU 1–1 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug

GREMIO

LLLDDD0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

CRUZEIRO

LWLWWL1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
2	Flamengo	30	+33	64
3	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
4	Fluminense	30	+11	51
5	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
6	Bahia	30	+8	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	+2	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
9	Santos	30	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	30	+3	40
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	30	−11	36
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	30	−7	32
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18