Gremio v Atletico Paranaense prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GremioDrawAtletico Paranaense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Gremio 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gremio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gremio 41%, draw 26%, Atletico Paranaense 33%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Gremio v Atletico ParanaenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Gremio win41%

Draw26%

Atletico Paranaense win33%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueArena do Grêmio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gremio

Atletico Paranaense

12Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
18	Gremio	31	−10	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gremio winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Gremio a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gremio v Atletico Paranaense~~1.40 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 31 v 54~~18 v 4

~~The market · Gremio win~~40% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gremio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gremio win	41%	40%	+1
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Atletico Paranaense win	33%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	44%	+5
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	24%	+3
Gremio or draw	67%	68%	−1
Gremio clean sheet	29%	–	–
Atletico Paranaense clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.5 8.6 5.5 2.3 1 9.8 12.5 7.6 3.1 2 7.0 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gremio down, Atletico Paranaense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,215 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 315 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.43 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gremio at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Paranaense away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Gremio, 1.24 for Atletico Paranaense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–0 GRE · ATL 0–2 GRE · GRE 2–0 ATL · GRE 1–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 12 Sept

GREMIO

LLDDDL1–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–4

ATLETICO PARANAENSE

DWDWLD3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	32	−11	38
14	Mirassol	32	−8	37
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Internacional	32	−4	35
17	Corinthians	31	−7	33
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18