Fluminense v Santos

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fluminense win at 54%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Fluminense 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
3. 1′KICK-OFF Fluminense v Santos
4. 4′We said Fluminense at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Fluminense 1–0 Santos
6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Fluminense win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
7. 5′Rodrigo Castillo scores for Fluminense on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
8. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Álvaro Barreal · Santos
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
10. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Agustín Canobbio · Fluminense
11. 38′We said Fluminense at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
12. 45′SECOND HALF Fluminense 1–0 Santos
13. 48′HALF-TIME Fluminense 1–0 Santos
14. 49′We said Fluminense at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–41–19
15. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Fluminense 1–1 Santos
16. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Fluminense win: 54% at kick-off, 40% now
17. 50′We said Fluminense at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–19
18. 51′49′: Gabriel Barbosa on the scoresheet for Santos, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–42–19
19. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Fluminense win 38%)
20. 53′We said Fluminense at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–27–62
21. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Fluminense 1–2 Santos
22. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Fluminense win: 54% at kick-off, 11% now
23. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Santos win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Draw 27%)
24. 54′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 11–26–63
25. 55′Santos ahead on 54′ through Philippe Coutinho. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–26–63
26. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fluminense · On: Hulk · Off: Rodrigo Castillo
27. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fluminense · On: Jefferson David Savarino Quintero · Off: Yeferson Soteldo
28. 58′We said Fluminense at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–65
29. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fluminense · On: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima · Off: Luciano Acosta
30. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fluminense · On: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado · Off: Agustín Canobbio
31. 71′We said Fluminense at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
32. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Fluminense win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Santos · On: Rony · Off: Philippe Coutinho
34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Santos · On: Christian Oliva · Off: Everton
35. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Fluminense · On: Kevin Serna · Off: Gustavo Nonato Santana
36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Santos · On: João Alencar Santos Paes da Costa · Off: Lucas Veríssimo
37. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Santos · On: Rafael Gonzaga · Off: Álvaro Barreal
38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Santos · On: Benjamín Rollheiser · Off: Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior
39. 98′1–2 at the end. Our 54% on Fluminense misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
40. FTFULL TIME Fluminense 1–2 Santos
41. FTFluminense 1–2 Santos · Fluminense win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.