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Fluminense v Coritiba

Fluminense

4–0Full time

Coritiba

Serie A · FRI 9 OCT · Estádio do Maracanã

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fluminense win61%

Draw22%

Coritiba win17%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 23:36

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 01:30

Venue · Estádio do Maracanã

Referee · Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Fluminense

4-2-3-1

1 Fábio

23 Guga

3 Thiago Silva

29 Julián Millán

13 Guilherme Arana

35 Hércules

8 Matheus Martinelli

90 Kevin Serna

10 Ganso

11 Jefferson Savarino

7 Hulk

Coach · Marcão

Substitutes

32 · Luciano Acosta

2 · Samuel Xavier

94 · Otávio

19 · Rodrigo Castillo

34 · Wesley Natã

27 · Marcelo Pitaluga

4 · Ignácio

44 · Jemmes

46 · Júlio Fidelis

22 · Juan Pablo Freytes

21 · Igor Rabello

41 · Ruan Sales

Coritiba

4-2-3-1

22 Pedro Rangel

14 Fabricio Bustos

55 Jacy Maranhão

26 Bruno Melo

6 Felipe Jonatan

21 Thiago Santos

19 Sebastián Gómez

5 Nicolas Fonseca

10 Josué

77 Breno Lopes

32 Pedro Rocha

Coach · Fernando Seabra

Substitutes

4 · Rodrigo Moledo

28 · Fabinho

18 · Paulo Roberto

2 · Tinga

36 · Vini Paulista

13 · Keiller

3 · Maicon

66 · Rodrigo Gelado

50 · Vitor Gonçalves Tissi

39 · Gustavo

78 · Renato Marques

99 · Rodrigo Rodrigues

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fluminense

4-2-3-1

1 Fábio

23 Guga

3 Thiago Silva

29 Julián Millán

13 Guilherme Arana

35 Hércules

8 Matheus Martinelli

90 Kevin Serna

10 Ganso

11 Jefferson Savarino

7 Hulk

Coach · Marcão

Substitutes

32 · Luciano Acosta

2 · Samuel Xavier

94 · Otávio

19 · Rodrigo Castillo

34 · Wesley Natã

27 · Marcelo Pitaluga

4 · Ignácio

44 · Jemmes

46 · Júlio Fidelis

22 · Juan Pablo Freytes

21 · Igor Rabello

41 · Ruan Sales

Coritiba

4-2-3-1

22 Pedro Rangel

14 Fabricio Bustos

55 Jacy Maranhão

26 Bruno Melo

6 Felipe Jonatan

21 Thiago Santos

19 Sebastián Gómez

5 Nicolas Fonseca

10 Josué

77 Breno Lopes

32 Pedro Rocha

Coach · Fernando Seabra

Substitutes

4 · Rodrigo Moledo

28 · Fabinho

18 · Paulo Roberto

2 · Tinga

36 · Vini Paulista

13 · Keiller

3 · Maicon

66 · Rodrigo Gelado

50 · Vitor Gonçalves Tissi

39 · Gustavo

78 · Renato Marques

99 · Rodrigo Rodrigues

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · fluminense winPublished 8 Oct 23:36

61% The market65%

Us61%

~~Market~~65%

We make Fluminense a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fluminense win	61%	65%	−4
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Coritiba win	17%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−3
Fluminense or draw	83%	86%	−3
Fluminense clean sheet	40%	–	–
Coritiba clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.1 5.2 2.4 1 11.1 10.4 4.6 2 10.8 9.8 4.4 3 7.0 6.3 2.9 4 3.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fluminense down, Coritiba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,184 Serie A matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 284 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fluminense at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Coritiba away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Fluminense, 0.91 for Coritiba. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~COR 1–1 FLU · FLU 2–1 COR · COR 2–0 FLU · FLU 5–2 COR

Form · last six in Serie A

FLUMINENSE

WWDWLW3–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1

CORITIBA

DWWLDL1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	28	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	28	+5	43
8	Santos	28	+2	41
9	Coritiba	28	−6	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	28	+1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	−6	34
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	29	−15	24
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Fluminense

Coritiba

Match statistics

Line-ups

Fluminense

Coritiba

Head to head

Form · last six in Serie A

The table