Flamengo v Fluminense prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense FLAMENGO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Flamengo win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.250

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flamengo win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flamengo 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
35′Flamengo have had 7.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 50–32–18
36′Flamengo have had 7.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 49–33–18
39′Flamengo have had 9.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 48–34–18
42′We said Flamengo at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–36–18
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 47% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 47% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
45′SECOND HALF Flamengo 0–0 Fluminense
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 45% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Saúl Ñíguez · Flamengo
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Flamengo win: 59% at kick-off, 45% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Agustín Canobbio · Fluminense
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fluminense · On: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima · Off: Luciano Acosta
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fluminense · On: Kevin Serna · Off: Yeferson Soteldo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Flamengo · On: Bruno Henrique · Off: Pedro
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Flamengo · On: Joaquín Freitas · Off: Saúl Ñíguez
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense · Jorge Carrascal
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fluminense · On: Hulk · Off: Rodrigo Castillo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fluminense · On: Jefferson David Savarino Quintero · Off: Agustín Canobbio
77′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Flamengo · On: Gonzalo Plata · Off: Lucas Paquetá
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Flamengo · On: Gonzalo Plata · Off: Lucas Paquetá
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fluminense · On: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado · Off: Matheus Martinelli Lima
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Ignácio da Silva Oliveira · Fluminense
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Guilherme Arana · Fluminense
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Flamengo · On: Danilo Luiz da Silva · Off: Jorge Carrascal
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Joaquín Freitas · Flamengo
FTFULL TIME Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense
FTFlamengo 1–0 Fluminense · Flamengo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Flamengo win59%

Draw23%

Fluminense win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:30

VenueEstádio do Maracanã

RefereeRafael Rodrigo Klein

Line-ups

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

Fluminense

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Flamengo

Fluminense

3Days since last match2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	29	+32	61
3	Fluminense	29	+12	51

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

1 Agustín Rossi

2 Guillermo Varela

3 Léo Ortiz

4 Léo Pereira

26 Alex Sandro

5 Erick Pulgar

8 Saúl Ñíguez

15 Jorge Carrascal

11 Lucas Paquetá

16 Samuel Lino

9 Pedro Guilherme

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · Bruno Henrique

30 · Joaquín Freitas

18 · Nicolás de la Cruz

19 · Gonzalo Plata

13 · Danilo

42 · Andrew

49 · Dyogo Alves

22 · Emerson Royal

44 · Vitão

77 · Johnny Goes

7 · Luiz Araújo

14 · Anthony Valencia

Fluminense

4-2-3-1

1 Fábio

2 Samuel Xavier

4 Ignácio

29 Julián Millán

13 Guilherme Arana

16 Nonato

8 Matheus Martinelli

17 Agustín Canobbio

32 Luciano Acosta

30 Yeferson Soteldo

19 Rodrigo Castillo

Coach · –

Substitutes

90 · Kevin Serna

10 · Ganso

11 · Jefferson Savarino

7 · Hulk

34 · Wesley Natã

98 · Vitor Eudes

22 · Juan Pablo Freytes

23 · Guga

3 · Thiago Silva

21 · Igor Rabello

35 · Hércules

94 · Otávio

Our number · flamengo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make Flamengo a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · flamengo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 59% now. The market has gone from 69% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flamengo win	59%	65%	−5
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Fluminense win	18%	14%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Flamengo or draw	82%	86%	−4
Flamengo clean sheet	41%	–	–
Fluminense clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 5.7 2.6 1 11.8 10.9 4.8 2 11.0 9.7 4.3 3 6.7 5.9 2.7 4 3.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flamengo down, Fluminense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,190 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 290 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.09 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flamengo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fluminense away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Flamengo, 0.89 for Fluminense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.09

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~FLU 1–2 FLA · FLU 2–1 FLA · FLA 1–0 FLU · FLA 0–2 FLU

Form · last six in Serie A

FLAMENGO

WWWWWD3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

FLUMINENSE

WDWLWW2–1 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	29	+32	61
2	Palmeiras	29	+27	60
3	Fluminense	29	+12	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
6	Bahia	29	+7	46
7	Atletico-MG	29	+5	44
8	Santos	29	+2	42
9	Coritiba	29	−10	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	−1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18