Flamengo v Atletico-MG prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FlamengoDrawAtletico-MG

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Flamengo 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flamengo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flamengo 62%, draw 22%, Atletico-MG 16%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Flamengo v Atletico-MGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Flamengo win62%

Draw22%

Atletico-MG win16%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 32

VenueEstádio do Maracanã

RefereeRodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flamengo

Atletico-MG

3Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores

Last match: 21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flamengo winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

62% The market72%

Us62%

~~Market~~72%

We make Flamengo a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flamengo v Atletico-MG~~1.89 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 67 v 50~~2 v 6

~~The market · Flamengo win~~72% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flamengo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flamengo win	62%	72%	−10
Draw	22%	18%	+4
Atletico-MG win	16%	10%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	38%	−9
Flamengo or draw	84%	90%	−6
Flamengo clean sheet	44%	–	–
Atletico-MG clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 6.9 5.3 2.3 1 12.3 10.5 4.2 2 11.8 9.6 4.0 3 7.4 6.1 2.5 4 3.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flamengo down, Atletico-MG across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,216 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 316 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flamengo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico-MG away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Flamengo, 0.83 for Atletico-MG. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–4 FLA · ATL 1–1 FLA · ATL 0–1 FLA · FLA 0–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

FLAMENGO

WWWDWW1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

ATLETICO-MG

WDWDWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	32	+34	69
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
5	Fluminense	32	+9	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	32	+5	50
8	Santos	32	+2	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	+1	41
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	−6	38
14	Vitoria	32	−11	38
15	Mirassol	32	−8	37
16	Internacional	32	−4	35
17	Corinthians	32	−8	33
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	31	−31	21