Cruzeiro v Remo prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 02:30

Cruzeiro 1–0 Remo CRUZEIRO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cruzeiro win~~59%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.249

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.115

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cruzeiro win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cruzeiro was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–17
1′KICK-OFF Cruzeiro v Remo
26′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Cruzeiro · On: Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira · Off: Keny arroyo
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Cruzeiro win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
41′We said Cruzeiro at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–36–17
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
45′HALF-TIME Cruzeiro 1–0 Remo
45′SECOND HALF Cruzeiro 1–0 Remo
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Remo · On: Leonel Picco · Off: Ze Ricardo
48′We said Cruzeiro at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–17 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′We published Cruzeiro at 59%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–3
49′45′: Kaio Jorge on the scoresheet for Cruzeiro, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cruzeiro 1–0 Remo
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Cruzeiro win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Patrick Bezerra do Nascimento · Remo
56′We published Cruzeiro at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cruzeiro · On: Matheus Henrique · Off: Zé Lucas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Remo · On: David Francisco·Trindade Braga · Off: Eduardo Melo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Remo · On: Vitor Bueno · Off: Patrick Bezerra do Nascimento
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Cruzeiro win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
74′We published Cruzeiro at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Zé Ivaldo · Remo
84′We published Cruzeiro at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cruzeiro · On: Fagner · Off: William
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Remo · On: Paulo Sérgio Da Costa Evangelista Junior · Off: José Welison Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cruzeiro · On: Bruno Rodrigues · Off: Gerson
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Remo · On: Andres Dionicio Moreno Gonzalez · Off: José Welison
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Cruzeiro win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Marcelo Rodrigues Souza · Remo
FTFULL TIME Cruzeiro 1–0 Remo
FTCruzeiro 1–0 Remo · Cruzeiro win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cruzeiro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cruzeiro 59%, draw 23%, Remo 17%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Cruzeiro v RemoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cruzeiro win59%

Draw23%

Remo win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 32

VenueEstádio Mineirão

RefereeBruno Arleu

Line-ups

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1

Remo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cruzeiro

Remo

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Cruzeiro	31	+4	51
19	Remo	31	−15	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cruzeiro

4-2-3-1

81 Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa

12 William

15 Fabrício Bruno

34 Jonathan

25 L. Villalba

5 Zé Lucas

29 L. Romero

99 K. Arroyo

10 Matheus Pereira

8 Gerson

19 Kaio Jorge

Coach · Artur Jorge

Substitutes

11 · Marquinhos

20 · Wesley Gassova

1 · Cássio

9 · Bruno Rodrigues

97 · L. Rodríguez

27 · G. Rojas

16 · Lucas Silva

22 · N. Villareal

6 · M. Viña

7 · Matheus Henrique

67 · João Gabriel e Costa Cesco

23 · Fágner

Remo

4-2-3-1

88 Marcelo Rangel

79 Marcelinho

13 Marllon

27 Zé Ivaldo

6 Marlon

28 José Welison

8 Patrick

21 A. Galeano

55 Zé Ricardo

7 Jája Silva

39 Eduardo Melo

Coach · Thiago Carpini

Substitutes

14 · L. Picco

2 · Matheus Alexandre

15 · Vitor Bueno

20 · Andres Dionicio Moreno Gonzalez

97 · Ivan

18 · D. Tchamba

26 · David Francisco

94 · Ygor Vinhas

61 · Paulo Sérgio Da Costa Evangelista Junior

35 · Edson Fernando

5 · Leo Andrade

Our number · cruzeiro winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 03:53 · locked at kick-off

59% The market72%

Us59%

~~Market~~72%

We make Cruzeiro a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cruzeiro v Remo~~1.80 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 51 v 26~~4 v 19

~~The market · Cruzeiro win~~72% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cruzeiro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cruzeiro win	59%	72%	−13
Draw	23%	17%	+6
Remo win	17%	11%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	67%	−18
Both teams to score	48%	55%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	85%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	28%	47%	−19
Cruzeiro or draw	83%	89%	−6
Cruzeiro clean sheet	43%	–	–
Remo clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 5.9 2.6 1 12.5 10.9 4.6 2 11.3 9.6 4.1 3 6.8 5.8 2.5 4 3.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cruzeiro down, Remo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,209 Serie A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 309 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cruzeiro at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Remo away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Cruzeiro, 0.85 for Remo. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~REM 0–1 CRU · CRU 1–0 REM · REM 2–1 CRU · CRU 1–3 REM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

CRUZEIRO

WLWWLW3–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 4–2

REMO

LLLDDD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	+4	51
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	31	−15	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18