Coritiba v Vitoria prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CoritibaDrawVitoria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Coritiba 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coritiba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Coritiba 44%, draw 26%, Vitoria 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Coritiba v VitoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Coritiba win44%

Draw26%

Vitoria win30%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueEstádio Couto Pereira

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Coritiba

Vitoria

12Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coritiba winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Coritiba a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Coritiba v Vitoria~~1.47 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 37~~12 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coritiba win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Vitoria win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Coritiba or draw	70%	–	–
Coritiba clean sheet	31%	–	–
Vitoria clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.4 8.2 4.9 1 10.3 12.3 7.1 2.8 2 7.7 8.9 5.2 2.1 3 3.8 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coritiba down, Vitoria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,210 Serie A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 310 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coritiba at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vitoria away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Coritiba, 1.18 for Vitoria. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VIT 4–1 COR · VIT 0–0 COR · COR 1–0 VIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

CORITIBA

LDLLDL1–2 · 3–3 · 0–5 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–1

VITORIA

DLWLDD2–2 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18