Coritiba v Gremio prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CoritibaDrawGremio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Coritiba 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coritiba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Coritiba 42%, draw 25%, Gremio 33%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Coritiba v GremioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Coritiba win42%

Draw25%

Gremio win33%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueEstádio Couto Pereira

RefereeRamon Abatti

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Coritiba

Gremio

9Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
18	Gremio	31	−10	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coritiba winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market48%

Us42%

~~Market~~48%

We make Coritiba a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Coritiba v Gremio~~1.50 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 39 v 31~~12 v 18

~~The market · Coritiba win~~48% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Coritiba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coritiba win	42%	48%	−6
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Gremio win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	30%	+1
Coritiba or draw	67%	74%	−7
Coritiba clean sheet	28%	–	–
Gremio clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 7.7 5.1 2.3 1 8.9 12.0 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.5 4.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coritiba down, Gremio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,216 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 316 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coritiba at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gremio away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Coritiba, 1.30 for Gremio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GRE 1–0 COR · COR 1–2 GRE · GRE 5–1 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

CORITIBA

LDLLDL1–2 · 3–3 · 0–5 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–1

GREMIO

LLDDDL1–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	32	+34	69
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
5	Fluminense	32	+9	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	32	+5	50
8	Santos	32	+2	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	+1	41
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	−6	38
14	Vitoria	32	−11	38
15	Mirassol	32	−8	37
16	Internacional	32	−4	35
17	Corinthians	32	−8	33
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	31	−31	21