Coritiba v Botafogo prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo BOTAFOGO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Botafogo win~~42%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Botafogo win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Botafogo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
1′KICK-OFF Coritiba v Botafogo
2′Much as we predicted: Botafogo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Coritiba 0–0 Botafogo · Nahuel Ferraresi
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Coritiba 1–0 Botafogo · Marçal
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Coritiba 1–0 Botafogo · Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Coritiba 1–0 Botafogo · Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo · Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Allan · Botafogo
45′SECOND HALF Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Fabricio Bustos · Coritiba
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Sebastián Gómez · Coritiba
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Thiago Santos · Coritiba
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Coritiba · On: Nicolas Fonseca · Off: Thiago Santos
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Coritiba · On: Nicolas Fonseca · Off: Thiago Santos
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Coritiba · On: Rodrigo Silva Nascimento · Off: Felipe Jonatan
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Coritiba · On: Breno Lopes · Off: Joaquin Lavega
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Tiago Coser · Coritiba
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Marçal · Botafogo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Botafogo · On: Júnior Santos · Off: Allan Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Botafogo · On: domingos andrade · Off: Hakim Ziyech Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Botafogo · On: Álvaro Montoro · Off: Cristian Medina
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Botafogo · On: Tiquinho Soares · Off: Arthur Cabral
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Coritiba · On: Renato Marques · Off: Josué
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Botafogo · On: Paulinho · Off: Matheus Martins
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Rodrigo Silva Nascimento · Coritiba
FTFULL TIME Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo
FTCoritiba 1–1 Botafogo · Botafogo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Coritiba win33%

Draw25%

Botafogo win42%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstádio Couto Pereira

RefereeMatheus Delgado Candancan

Line-ups

Coritiba

4-2-3-1

Botafogo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Coritiba

Botafogo

3Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Coritiba	29	−10	38
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Coritiba

4-2-3-1

1 Pedro Luccas

14 F. Bustos

23 Tiago Cóser

55 Jacy

6 Felipe Jonatan

21 Thiago Santos

19 S. Gómez

32 Pedro Rocha

10 Josué

7 J. Lavega

18 Paulo Roberto

Coach · Fernando Seabra

Substitutes

2 · Tinga

4 · Rodrigo Moledo

5 · N. Fonseca

17 · B. Ocampo

3 · Maicon

22 · Pedro Rangel

99 · Rodrigo Rodrigues

66 · Rodrigo Gelado

39 · Gustavo

36 · Vini Paulista

78 · Renato Marques

77 · Breno Lopes

Botafogo

4-2-3-1

12 Gabriel Batista

2 Vitinho

5 N. Ferraresi

21 Marçal

13 Alex Telles

8 Danilo Santos

25 Allan

22 H. Ziyech

6 C. Medina

11 Matheus Martins

19 Arthur Cabral

Coach · Tite

Substitutes

37 · K. Barria

91 · Domingos Andrade

90 · Danilo

75 · Huguinho

7 · Júnior Santos

34 · G. Justino

59 · Kauan Toledo

10 · Álvaro Montoro

29 · Paulinho

4 · M. Ponte

9 · Tiquinho Soares

17 · Warleson

Our number · botafogo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

42% The market37%

Us42%

~~Market~~37%

We make Botafogo a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · botafogo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. The market has gone from 36% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coritiba win	33%	36%	−3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Botafogo win	42%	37%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−3
Coritiba or draw	58%	63%	−5
Coritiba clean sheet	22%	–	–
Botafogo clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 8.7 6.8 3.5 1 7.6 11.8 8.8 4.5 2 5.1 7.6 5.8 2.9 3 2.3 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coritiba down, Botafogo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,196 Serie A matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 296 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coritiba at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Botafogo away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Coritiba, 1.52 for Botafogo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BOT 2–2 COR · COR 1–1 BOT · BOT 4–1 COR · BOT 2–0 COR

Form · last six in Serie A

CORITIBA

WWLDLL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–5 · 0–4

BOTAFOGO

LDDWLL0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	+30	63
3	Fluminense	30	+11	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Bahia	30	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	+6	47
8	Santos	30	+1	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	0	39
10	Coritiba	29	−10	38
11	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
12	Vitoria	30	−11	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	30	−10	33
16	Internacional	30	−5	32
17	Corinthians	30	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18