Corinthians v Vitoria

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Corinthians win at 51%.
2. 3′KICK-OFF Corinthians v Vitoria
3. 4′Much as we predicted: Corinthians was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
4. 29′7 shots for Corinthians, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 44–34–22
5. 34′9 shots for Corinthians, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 43–36–21
6. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Corinthians win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
7. 43′We said Corinthians at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–20
8. 45′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–26–61
9. 45′HALF-TIME Corinthians 0–1 Vitoria
10. 45′SECOND HALF Corinthians 0–1 Vitoria
11. 46′Vitoria find the net on 45′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–62
12. 46′Corinthians have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–61
13. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Corinthians 0–1 Vitoria
14. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Corinthians win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
15. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Vitoria win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Corinthians win 40%)
16. 47′We said Corinthians at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–26–62
17. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Corinthians win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
18. 53′We said Corinthians at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
19. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira · Vitoria
20. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' André · Corinthians
21. 66′We said Corinthians at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–58–15
22. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Corinthians 1–1 Vitoria
23. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Corinthians win: 51% at kick-off, 27% now
24. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Vitoria win 73%)
25. 67′Yuri Alberto scores for Corinthians on 66′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–59–15
26. 68′Corinthians have had 16 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 25–60–14
27. 70′We said Corinthians at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Corinthians · On: Kaio César · Off: Vitinho
29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Corinthians win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
30. 75′We said Corinthians at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Corinthians · On: Matheus Bidu · Off: Jesse Lingard
32. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Vitoria · On: Zé Vitor · Off: Matheuzinho
33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Corinthians · On: Charles · Off: André
34. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Vitoria · On: Lucas Silva · Off: Diego Tarzia
35. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Corinthians win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
36. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Vitoria · On: Fabri · Off: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
37. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Corinthians at 51% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
38. 91′We said Corinthians at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
39. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Corinthians · On: Gui Negão · Off: Yuri Alberto
40. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Vitoria · On: Walace · Off: Caíque Gonçalves
41. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Vitoria · On: Ignacio Laquintana · Off: Erick
42. FTFULL TIME Corinthians 1–1 Vitoria
43. FTCorinthians 1–1 Vitoria · Corinthians win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.