Corinthians v Mirassol prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CorinthiansDrawMirassol

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Corinthians 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Corinthians are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Corinthians 43%, draw 27%, Mirassol 29%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Corinthians v MirassolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Corinthians win43%

Draw27%

Mirassol win29%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueNeo Quimica Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Corinthians

Mirassol

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Mirassol	32	−8	37
17	Corinthians	32	−8	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · corinthians winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market59%

Us43%

~~Market~~59%

We make Corinthians a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Corinthians v Mirassol~~1.38 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 37~~17 v 15

~~The market · Corinthians win~~59% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Corinthians win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Corinthians win	43%	59%	−16
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Mirassol win	29%	16%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	45%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	26%	−2
Corinthians or draw	71%	84%	−13
Corinthians clean sheet	34%	–	–
Mirassol clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.9 9.0 5.0 1 11.5 12.9 6.9 2.5 2 8.1 8.7 4.7 3 3.7 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Corinthians down, Mirassol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,216 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 316 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Corinthians at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Mirassol away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Corinthians, 1.09 for Mirassol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MIR 2–1 COR · COR 3–0 MIR · MIR 2–1 COR · COR 2–0 MIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 13 Sept

CORINTHIANS

LLLLDL1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–3

MIRASSOL

DWDLWD2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	32	+34	69
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	+1	41
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	−6	38
14	Vitoria	32	−11	38
15	Mirassol	32	−8	37
16	Internacional	32	−4	35
17	Corinthians	32	−8	33
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18