Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fluminense win at 48%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Fluminense was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 27–26–48
3. 1′KICK-OFF Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense
4. 8′We said Fluminense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 53–24–23
5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Chapecoense-sc 1–0 Fluminense
6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Fluminense win: 48% at kick-off, 23% now
7. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Chapecoense-sc win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Fluminense win 47%)
8. 9′Chapecoense-sc ahead on 9′ through Yannick Bolasie. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–24–23
9. 21′We said Fluminense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
10. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Fluminense win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
11. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Fluminense
12. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Fluminense win: 48% at kick-off, 42% now
13. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Fluminense win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Chapecoense-sc win 58%)
14. 31′Claudio Rodrigues Gomes scores for Fluminense on 30′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–33–42
15. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Camilo Reijers de Oliveira · Chapecoense-sc
16. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Fluminense win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
17. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chapecoense-sc · On: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira · Off: Maurício Garcez
18. 45′SECOND HALF Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Fluminense
19. 48′HALF-TIME Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Fluminense
20. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Fluminense win 39%)
21. 49′We said Fluminense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 23–42–36
22. 54′We said Fluminense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 21–45–34
23. 55′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 21–46–33
24. 56′We said Fluminense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–1 · 67–24–8
25. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Chapecoense-sc 2–1 Fluminense
26. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Fluminense win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
27. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Chapecoense-sc win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 46%)
28. 57′56′: Giovanni Augusto on the scoresheet for Chapecoense-sc, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 68–24–8
29. 57′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 68–24–8
30. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Yago Felipe · Chapecoense-sc
31. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fluminense · On: Riquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida · Off: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado
32. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fluminense · On: Luciano Acosta · Off: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
33. 69′We said Fluminense at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–20–4
34. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Chapecoense-sc · On: Kevin Ramírez · Off: Yannick Bolasie
35. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Chapecoense-sc · On: Bruno Matias · Off: Yago Felipe
36. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Chapecoense-sc · On: Rafael Thyere · Off: João Paulo
37. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fluminense · On: Rodrigo Castillo · Off: Hércules Pereira do Nascimento
38. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chapecoense-sc · On: Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior · Off: Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior
39. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fluminense · On: Germán Ezequiel Cano Recalde · Off: Hulk
40. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fluminense · On: Renê Rodrigues Martins · Off: Igor Rabello
41. 86′Fluminense have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–0
42. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Guilherme Arana · Fluminense
43. 97′Full time, 2–1. We called Fluminense at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–1 · 100–0–0
44. FTFULL TIME Chapecoense-sc 2–1 Fluminense
45. FTChapecoense-sc 2–1 Fluminense · Fluminense win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.