Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 02:00

Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense ATLETICO PARANAENSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Paranaense win~~45%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.378

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Paranaense win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Paranaense 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense
6′A goal for Atletico Paranaense on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Chapecoense-sc 0–1 Atletico Paranaense
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Atletico Paranaense win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
8′We said Atletico Paranaense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 11–18–71
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Chapecoense-sc 0–2 Atletico Paranaense · Luiz Gustavo
32′Atletico Paranaense ahead on 32′ through Kevin Viveros. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Chapecoense-sc 0–3 Atletico Paranaense · Luiz Gustavo
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Chapecoense-sc 0–3 Atletico Paranaense · Kevin Viveros
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Atletico Paranaense win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
35′Atletico Paranaense ahead on 31′ through Kevin Viveros. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
38′We said Atletico Paranaense at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
41′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior · Chapecoense-sc
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' João Paulo · Chapecoense-sc
45′HALF-TIME Chapecoense-sc 0–3 Atletico Paranaense
46′SECOND HALF Chapecoense-sc 0–3 Atletico Paranaense
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chapecoense-sc · On: Yannick Bolasie · Off: Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45' João Paulo · Chapecoense-sc
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45' João Paulo · Chapecoense-sc
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chapecoense-sc · On: Yannick Bolasie · Off: Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45' João Paulo · Chapecoense-sc
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Gilberto · Atletico Paranaense
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Chapecoense-sc · On: David Antunes da Silva · Off: Yago Felipe
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Chapecoense-sc 1–3 Atletico Paranaense · Kevin Viveros
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Chapecoense-sc · On: David Antunes da Silva · Off: Yago Felipe
76′⚽ GOAL · 72' Chapecoense-sc 1–3 Atletico Paranaense · Maurício Garcez
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense · Maurício Garcez
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense · Kevin Viveros
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Chapecoense-sc · On: Rafael Thyere · Off: Kauan Faria
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Atletico Paranaense · On: Juan Portilla · Off: Luiz Gustavo
FTFULL TIME Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense
FTChapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense · Atletico Paranaense win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 23:16 · locked at kick-off

Chapecoense-sc win30%

Draw26%

Atletico Paranaense win45%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 23:30

VenueArena Condá

RefereeWilton Sampaio

Line-ups

Chapecoense-sc

4-2-3-1

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chapecoense-sc

Atletico Paranaense

5Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chapecoense-sc

4-2-3-1

98 Anderson

23 Dudu

21 Kauan Faria Gomes

4 João Paulo

91 Bruno Pacheco

88 Yago Felipe

16 Bruno Matias

7 Marcinho

10 Giovanni Augusto

31 Garcez

9 Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira

Coach · Rafael Lacerda

Substitutes

20 · Bruno Tubarão

11 · Y. Bolasie

80 · Miguel Carvalho

19 · David Antunes

3 · Doma

6 · Mancha

15 · Rafael Thyere

39 · Rodrigo

14 · Gabriel Werner

29 · F. Rossi

30 · Matheus Aurélio

55 · Rosivan Macedo Soares

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1

1 Mycael

4 Arthur Dias

33 J. Aguirre

37 L. Esquivel

12 Gilberto

16 Jádson

14 Luiz Gustavo

7 S. Mendoza

21 Leozinho

8 João Cruz

9 K. Viveros

Coach · Odair Hellmann

Substitutes

47 · Chiqueti

10 · B. Zapelli

23 · Santos

19 · Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto

70 · Renan

27 · J. Portilla

3 · Léo

2 · Gilberto

5 · Felipinho

53 · Dudu

26 · Claudinho

55 · Bruno Gonçalves Baldini

Our number · atletico paranaense winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 23:16 · locked at kick-off

45% The market50%

Us45%

~~Market~~50%

We make Atletico Paranaense a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atletico paranaense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chapecoense-sc win	30%	24%	+6
Draw	26%	26%	−1
Atletico Paranaense win	45%	50%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	0
Chapecoense-sc or draw	55%	50%	+5
Chapecoense-sc clean sheet	22%	–	–
Atletico Paranaense clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.8 9.8 7.6 3.9 1 7.6 12.0 9.0 4.6 2 4.7 7.1 5.4 2.8 3 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chapecoense-sc down, Atletico Paranaense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,196 Serie A matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 296 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chapecoense-sc at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Paranaense away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Chapecoense-sc, 1.54 for Atletico Paranaense. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 23:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–0 CHA · CHA 1–1 ATL · ATL 2–2 CHA

Form · last six in Serie A

CHAPECOENSE-SC

WLWLDL1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

ATLETICO PARANAENSE

WDLDWD3–2 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	+30	63
3	Fluminense	30	+11	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Bahia	30	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	+6	47
8	Santos	30	+1	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	0	39
10	Coritiba	29	−10	38
11	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
12	Vitoria	30	−11	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	30	−10	33
16	Internacional	30	−5	32
17	Corinthians	30	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18