Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:30

Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc BOTAFOGO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Botafogo win~~70%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.133

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.135

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Botafogo win at 70%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Botafogo 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
1′KICK-OFF Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc
7′We said Botafogo at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–4
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Botafogo win: 70% at kick-off, 88% now
8′7′: Tiquinho Soares on the scoresheet for Botafogo, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–4
16′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Kauan Faria · Chapecoense-sc
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
45′SECOND HALF Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chapecoense-sc · On: Yannick Bolasie · Off: Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior
48′HALF-TIME Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Botafogo · On: Cristian Medina · Off: Hakim Ziyech
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Chapecoense-sc · On: Rodrigo · Off: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Chapecoense-sc · On: Max · Off: Giovanni Augusto
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Botafogo · On: domingos andrade · Off: Allan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Botafogo · On: Danilo · Off: Tiquinho Soares
72′We said Botafogo at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Botafogo win: 70% at kick-off, 90% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Botafogo · On: Júnior Santos · Off: Matheus Martins
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Botafogo · On: Kauan Toledo · Off: Álvaro Montoro
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chapecoense-sc · On: Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos · Off: Bruno Nunes De Barros
83′We said Botafogo at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Chapecoense-sc · On: F. Rossi · Off: Camilo Reijers de Oliveira
95′1–0 at the end. Our 70% on Botafogo comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc
FTBotafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc · Botafogo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Botafogo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Botafogo 70%, draw 18%, Chapecoense-sc 12%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Botafogo v Chapecoense-scBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Botafogo win70%

Draw18%

Chapecoense-sc win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueEstádio Nilton Santos

RefereeRaphael Claus

Line-ups

Botafogo

4-2-3-1

Chapecoense-sc

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Botafogo

Chapecoense-sc

5Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Botafogo	30	−5	36
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	−31	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Botafogo

4-2-3-1

12 Gabriel Batista

2 Vitinho

5 N. Ferraresi

21 Marçal

13 Alex Telles

25 Allan

8 Danilo Santos

22 H. Ziyech

10 Álvaro Montoro

11 Matheus Martins

9 Tiquinho Soares

Coach · Tite

Substitutes

7 · Júnior Santos

6 · C. Medina

29 · Paulinho

59 · Kauan Toledo

33 · G. Justino

4 · M. Ponte

91 · Domingos Andrade

19 · Arthur Cabral

37 · K. Barria

77 · L. Villalba

90 · Danilo

75 · Huguinho

17 · Warleson

Chapecoense-sc

4-4-2

98 Anderson

20 Bruno Tubarão

21 Kauan Faria Gomes

3 Doma

91 Bruno Pacheco

31 Garcez

88 Yago Felipe

27 Camilo

12 Fernando

10 Giovanni Augusto

9 Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira

Coach · Rafael Lacerda

Substitutes

11 · Y. Bolasie

16 · Bruno Matias

80 · Miguel Carvalho

23 · Dudu

4 · João Paulo

22 · Max

15 · Rafael Thyere

39 · Rodrigo

30 · Matheus Aurélio

29 · F. Rossi

Our number · botafogo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:32 · locked at kick-off

70% The market70%

Us70%

~~Market~~70%

We make Botafogo a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc~~2.34 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 36 v 18~~13 v 20

~~The market · Botafogo win~~70% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Botafogo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 70% now. The market has gone from 67% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botafogo win	70%	70%	0
Draw	18%	18%	0
Chapecoense-sc win	12%	12%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Botafogo or draw	88%	88%	0
Botafogo clean sheet	44%	–	–
Chapecoense-sc clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 4.5 3.4 1 9.7 8.4 3.4 2 11.3 9.4 3.9 3 8.8 7.2 3.0 4 5.2 4.3 5 2.5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Botafogo down, Chapecoense-sc across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,200 Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botafogo at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chapecoense-sc away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for Botafogo, 0.83 for Chapecoense-sc. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHA 2–0 BOT · BOT 1–0 CHA · CHA 1–4 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug

BOTAFOGO

DDWLLD0–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

CHAPECOENSE-SC

LWLDLL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	+11	51
5	Bahia	30	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	+2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	+6	47
8	Santos	30	+1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	+3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	−10	39
12	Vitoria	30	−11	36
13	Botafogo	30	−5	36
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
16	Corinthians	30	−7	32
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	−31	18