Bahia v Sao Paulo prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BahiaDrawSao Paulo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Bahia 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bahia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bahia 47%, draw 27%, Sao Paulo 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Bahia v Sao PauloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bahia win47%

Draw27%

Sao Paulo win26%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueArena Fonte Nova

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bahia

Sao Paulo

11Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bahia winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market48%

Us47%

~~Market~~48%

We make Bahia a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bahia v Sao Paulo~~1.44 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 49 v 43~~7 v 9

~~The market · Bahia win~~48% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bahia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bahia win	47%	48%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Sao Paulo win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Bahia or draw	74%	75%	−1
Bahia clean sheet	37%	–	–
Sao Paulo clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 8.5 4.4 1 12.2 12.7 6.3 2.1 2 8.9 9.0 4.5 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bahia down, Sao Paulo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,216 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 316 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bahia at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sao Paulo away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Bahia, 1.01 for Sao Paulo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAO 2–2 BAH · SAO 2–0 BAH · BAH 2–1 SAO · BAH 0–3 SAO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 5 Sept

BAHIA

WWLLWL3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

SAO PAULO

WLLWWD1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	32	+34	69
2	Flamengo	31	+36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	+12	54
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	32	+1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	+1	41
11	Botafogo	32	−7	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	−6	38
14	Vitoria	32	−11	38
15	Mirassol	32	−8	37
16	Internacional	32	−4	35
17	Corinthians	32	−8	33
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18