Bahia v Mirassol prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:00

Bahia 1–0 Mirassol BAHIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bahia win~~48%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.414

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bahia win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bahia 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
2′Little has changed for our model: Bahia 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–27
2′KICK-OFF Bahia v Mirassol
9′10′ and it is 0–0: Marcos Victor on the scoresheet for Bahia. 0–0 · 46–27–27
9′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bahia 0–0 Mirassol
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bahia 1–0 Mirassol · Marcos Victor
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Chico Kim · Mirassol
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune · Mirassol
37′We said Bahia at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Bahia 1–0 Mirassol
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 41% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' Bahia 1–0 Mirassol · Luciano
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Bahia 1–0 Mirassol · Luciano
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 41% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
39′38′ and it is 1–0: Luciano on the scoresheet for Bahia. 1–0 · 75–18–7
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 41% now
42′38′ and it is 1–0: Luciano on the scoresheet for Bahia. 1–0 · 76–18–6
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Bahia 1–0 Mirassol
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mirassol · On: Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve · Off: Chico Kim
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mirassol · On: Edson Carioca · Off: Alesson dos Santos Batista
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mirassol · On: Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo · Off: Gustavo Henric da Silva
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bahia win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bahia · On: Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho · Off: Caio Alexandre
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bahia · On: Román Gómez · Off: Marcos Victor
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Jean Lucas · Bahia
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Mirassol · On: André Luis · Off: Bruno Santos de Oliveira
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Bahia · On: Ademir · Off: Cristian Olivera
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Mirassol · On: Carlos Eduardo · Off: Denilson Alves Borges
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bahia · On: Éverton Ribeiro · Off: Rodrigo Nestor
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Carlos Eduardo · Mirassol
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Bahia · On: Willian José · Off: Alejo Veliz
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Neto Moura · Mirassol
FTFULL TIME Bahia 1–0 Mirassol
FTBahia 1–0 Mirassol · Bahia win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bahia win48%

Draw25%

Mirassol win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:30

VenueArena Fonte Nova

RefereeRamon Abatti

Line-ups

Bahia

4-3-3

Mirassol

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bahia

Mirassol

2Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bahia	29	+7	46
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bahia

4-3-3

1 Ronaldo

44 Marcos Victor

33 David Duarte

3 Marco Moreno

46 Luciano Juba

6 Jean Lucas

8 Caio Alexandre

11 Rodrigo Nestor

99 Cristian Olivera

9 Alejo Véliz

16 Erick Pulga

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · Román Gómez

14 · Erick

7 · Ademir

10 · Everton Ribeiro

12 · Willian José

17 · Guido Herrera

4 · Kanu

66 · José Guilherme

18 · Lautaro López

15 · Michel Araújo

23 · Mateo Sanabria

27 · Everaldo

Mirassol

4-3-3

22 Walter

32 Igor Formiga

2 Lucas Oliveira

3 Willian Machado

6 Reinaldo

27 Denilson

25 Neto Moura

10 Chico

19 Gustavo Silva

30 Bruno Santos

77 Alesson

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · Eduardo

7 · Shaylon

95 · Edson Carioca

9 · André Luis

96 · Carlos Eduardo

90 · Thomazella

44 · Gabriel Knesowitsch

12 · Victor Luis

20 · Daniel Borges

80 · Wallisson Luiz

17 · Fernandinho

99 · Zé Roberto

Our number · bahia winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

48% The market56%

Us48%

~~Market~~56%

We make Bahia a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bahia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bahia win	48%	56%	−9
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Mirassol win	27%	20%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Bahia or draw	73%	80%	−7
Bahia clean sheet	32%	–	–
Mirassol clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.9 7.3 4.3 1 10.3 12.0 6.7 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.4 4.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bahia down, Mirassol across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,190 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 290 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bahia at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mirassol away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Bahia, 1.13 for Mirassol. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 23:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MIR 1–2 BAH · MIR 5–1 BAH · BAH 1–1 MIR

Form · last six in Serie A

BAHIA

WWWWLL2–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

MIRASSOL

DLWDWD1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	29	+32	61
2	Palmeiras	29	+27	60
3	Fluminense	29	+12	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
6	Bahia	29	+7	46
7	Atletico-MG	29	+5	44
8	Santos	29	+2	42
9	Coritiba	29	−10	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	−1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18