Bahia v Flamengo prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:00

Bahia 0–3 Flamengo FLAMENGO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flamengo win~~42%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.503

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flamengo win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Bahia v Flamengo
2′Much as we predicted: Flamengo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Erick Pulgar · Flamengo
31′Flamengo have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–33–37
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Cristian Olivera · Bahia
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Flamengo win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Bahia 0–0 Flamengo
48′HALF-TIME Bahia 0–0 Flamengo
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Léo Pereira · Flamengo
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Flamengo win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Jean Lucas · Bahia
53′Flamengo have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 25–44–31
55′We said Flamengo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 24–45–30
56′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–46–30
57′We said Flamengo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 24–47–29
63′We published Flamengo at 42%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 4–18–78
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Bahia 0–1 Flamengo
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Flamengo win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Flamengo win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
64′Jorginho scores for Flamengo on 64′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–79
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bahia · On: Ademir · Off: Cristian Olivera
67′We published Flamengo at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bahia · On: Caio Alexandre · Off: Nicolas Acevedo
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bahia · On: Román Gómez · Off: Marcos Victor
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Flamengo · On: Lucas Paquetá · Off: Jorge Carrascal
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Flamengo win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
73′We published Flamengo at 42%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Bahia 0–2 Flamengo
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Flamengo win: 42% at kick-off, 98% now
74′73′: Gonzalo Plata on the scoresheet for Flamengo, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
75′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bahia · On: Éverton Ribeiro · Off: Rodrigo Nestor
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bahia · On: Mateo Naín Sanabria · Off: erick pulga
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Flamengo · On: Joaquín Freitas · Off: Samuel Lino
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Flamengo · On: Bruno Henrique · Off: Pedro
77′We published Flamengo at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bahia 0–3 Flamengo
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
79′Flamengo ahead on 78′ through Lucas Paquetá. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Flamengo · On: Vitão · Off: Léo Ortiz
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Flamengo · On: Nicolas De la Cruz · Off: Erick Pulgar
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Marco Moreno · Bahia
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Román Gómez · Bahia
FTFULL TIME Bahia 0–3 Flamengo
FTBahia 0–3 Flamengo · Flamengo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flamengo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bahia 32%, draw 26%, Flamengo 42%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Bahia v FlamengoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bahia win32%

Draw26%

Flamengo win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueArena Fonte Nova

RefereeWilton Sampaio

Line-ups

Bahia

5-3-2

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bahia

Flamengo

7Days since last match2

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 16 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Flamengo	30	+33	64
6	Bahia	30	+8	49

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bahia

5-3-2

1 Ronaldo

99 C. Olivera

44 Marcos Victor

33 David Duarte

3 Marco Moreno

46 Luciano Juba

6 Jean Lucas

5 N. Acevedo

11 Rodrigo Nestor

16 Erick Pulga

9 A. Véliz

Coach · Rogério Ceni

Substitutes

66 · Zé Guilherme

12 · Willian José

23 · M. Sanabria

15 · M. Araújo

4 · Kanu

17 · G. Herrera

31 · Roman Gomez

10 · Éverton Ribeiro

27 · Everaldo

14 · Erick

8 · Caio Alexandre

7 · Ademir

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

1 A. Rossi

2 G. Varela

3 Léo Ortiz

4 Léo Pereira

22 Emerson Royal

21 Jorginho

5 E. Pulgar

19 G. Plata

15 J. Carrascal

16 Samuel Lino

9 Pedro

Coach · Leonardo Jardim

Substitutes

42 · Andrew

27 · Bruno Henrique

26 · Alex Sandro

49 · Dyogo

18 · N. de la Cruz

77 · Johnny Góes

61 · João Victor Cunha

11 · Lucas Paquetá

7 · Luiz Araújo

14 · A. Valencia

44 · Vitão

30 · J. Freitas

Our number · flamengo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Flamengo a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bahia v Flamengo~~1.24 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 49 v 64~~6 v 2

~~The market · Flamengo win~~46% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flamengo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bahia win	32%	29%	+3
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Flamengo win	42%	46%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	57%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Bahia or draw	58%	54%	+4
Bahia clean sheet	23%	–	–
Flamengo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.9 9.6 7.2 3.5 1 8.1 12.2 8.8 4.3 2 5.2 7.5 5.4 2.7 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bahia down, Flamengo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,203 Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 303 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bahia at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Flamengo away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Bahia, 1.47 for Flamengo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 22:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLA 2–0 BAH · BAH 1–0 FLA · FLA 1–0 BAH · BAH 0–2 FLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug

BAHIA

WWWLLW3–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

FLAMENGO

WWWWDW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
2	Flamengo	30	+33	64
3	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
4	Fluminense	30	+11	51
5	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
6	Bahia	30	+8	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	+2	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
9	Santos	30	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	30	+3	40
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	30	−11	36
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	30	−7	32
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18