Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras PALMEIRAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palmeiras win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.559

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palmeiras win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Palmeiras was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
2′KICK-OFF Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras
6′6′: Maurício Magalhães Prado on the scoresheet for Palmeiras, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–67
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Palmeiras · Maurício Magalhães Prado
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Palmeiras win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
7′We published Palmeiras at 39%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
12′Palmeiras ahead on 10′ through Joaquín Piquerez. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–88
12′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Gilberto · Atletico Paranaense
12′⚽ GOAL · 10' Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras · Joaquín Piquerez
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Palmeiras win: 39% at kick-off, 88% now
13′We published Palmeiras at 39%. Our model now makes it 88%. 0–2 · 4–9–88
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Palmeiras win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Andreas Pereira · Palmeiras
26′We published Palmeiras at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Joaquín Piquerez · Palmeiras
43′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Andreas Pereira · Palmeiras
44′A red card for Palmeiras on 43′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Paranaense · On: jorge rivaldo · Off: João Victor Machado Cruz Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Paranaense · On: jorge rivaldo · Off: Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Palmeiras · On: Marlon Freitas · Off: Maurício Magalhães Prado
48′SECOND HALF Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras
53′We published Palmeiras at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Atletico Paranaense · On: Bruno Zapelli · Off: Claudinho
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–96
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Leonardo Caetano Silva · Atletico Paranaense
66′13 shots for Atletico Paranaense, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Palmeiras · On: Jhon Arias · Off: José Manuel López
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Atletico Paranaense · On: chiqueti · Off: Gilberto
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Palmeiras · On: Emiliano Martínez · Off: Lucas Evangelista
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Palmeiras · On: Arthur Gabriel · Off: Ramon Sosa
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Palmeiras win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
76′17 shots for Atletico Paranaense, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
82′We published Palmeiras at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Atletico Paranaense · On: Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio · Off: Leonardo Caetano Silva
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Palmeiras · On: Luis Benedetti · Off: Bruno Fuchs
93′Atletico Paranaense have had 24 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras
FTAtletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras · Palmeiras win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palmeiras are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Paranaense 33%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 39%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Paranaense v PalmeirasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Paranaense win33%

Draw27%

Palmeiras win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueArena da Baixada

RefereePaulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Paranaense

Palmeiras

5Days since last match2

Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 15 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadores

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Palmeiras	30	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	+14	53

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1

1 Mycael

4 Arthur Dias

33 J. Aguirre

14 Luiz Gustavo

12 Gilberto

16 Jádson

5 Felipinho

7 S. Mendoza

21 Leozinho

8 João Cruz

9 K. Viveros

Coach · Odair Hellmann

Substitutes

47 · Chiqueti

26 · Claudinho

63 · Diogo Riquelme

53 · Dudu

3 · Léo

27 · J. Portilla

70 · Renan

19 · Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto

23 · Santos

10 · B. Zapelli

39 · Leonardo Cerci Elias

55 · Bruno Gonçalves Baldini

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

1 Carlos Miguel

3 Bruno Fuchs

26 Murilo

2 A. Barboza

12 Khellven

30 Lucas Evangelista

8 Andreas Pereira

22 J. Piquerez

42 J. López

18 Maurício

19 R. Sosa

Coach · Abel Ferreira

Substitutes

43 · Benedetti

45 · Erick Machado

7 · Felipe Anderson

48 · Larson

50 · Luis Felipe

14 · Marcelo Lomba

17 · Marlon Freitas

32 · E. Martínez

10 · Paulinho

11 · J. Arias

56 · Arthur

21 · Bruno

Our number · palmeiras winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:20 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Palmeiras a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras~~1.18 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 53 v 63~~3 v 2

~~The market · Palmeiras win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Palmeiras win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Paranaense win	33%	33%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Palmeiras win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Atletico Paranaense or draw	61%	61%	0
Atletico Paranaense clean sheet	27%	–	–
Palmeiras clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.6 10.6 7.1 3.1 1 9.6 12.9 8.3 3.7 2 5.8 7.5 4.9 2.1 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Paranaense down, Palmeiras across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,200 Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Palmeiras away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Atletico Paranaense, 1.31 for Palmeiras. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 23:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAL 1–0 ATL · ATL 0–2 PAL · PAL 0–2 ATL · PAL 1–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 30 Aug

ATLETICO PARANAENSE

DLDWDW3–3 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 4–1

PALMEIRAS

DDWDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	+11	51
5	Bahia	30	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	+2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	+6	47
8	Santos	30	+1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	+3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	−10	39
12	Vitoria	30	−11	36
13	Botafogo	30	−5	36
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
16	Corinthians	30	−7	32
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	−31	18