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Atletico Paranaense v Atletico-MG

Atletico Paranaense

2–2Full time

Atletico-MG

Serie A · FRI 9 OCT · Arena da Baixada

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atletico Paranaense win46%

Draw27%

Atletico-MG win27%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 23:36

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Arena da Baixada

Referee · Ramon Abatti

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1

1 Mycael

4 Arthur Dias

22 Carlos Terán

37 Lucas Esquivel

12 Gilberto

16 Jádson

14 Luiz Gustavo

7 Steven Mendoza

18 Kerwin Vargas

8 João Cruz

9 Kevin Viveros

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · Claudinho

21 · Leozinho

10 · Bruno Zapelli

19 · Jorge Rivaldo

2 · Gilberto Junior

23 · Santos

3 · Léo

63 · Diogo Riquelme

47 · Chiqueti

53 · Dudu

5 · Felipinho

70 · Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno

Atletico-MG

4-3-3

1 Gabriel Delfim

2 Natanael

40 Vitão

13 Lyanco

6 Renan Lodi

7 Fred

8 Maycon

39 Mamady Cissé

28 Tomás Cuello

19 Reinier

11 Bernard

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · Victor Hugo

25 · Tomás Pérez

15 · Kevin Castaño

17 · Igor Gomes

18 · Thiago Borbas

64 · Guilherme Pires

31 · Robert Alves

36 · Kauã Pascini

3 · Léo Duarte

14 · Vitor Hugo

5 · Alexsander

92 · Dudu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense

3-4-2-1

1 Mycael

4 Arthur Dias

22 Carlos Terán

37 Lucas Esquivel

12 Gilberto

16 Jádson

14 Luiz Gustavo

7 Steven Mendoza

18 Kerwin Vargas

8 João Cruz

9 Kevin Viveros

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · Claudinho

21 · Leozinho

10 · Bruno Zapelli

19 · Jorge Rivaldo

2 · Gilberto Junior

23 · Santos

3 · Léo

63 · Diogo Riquelme

47 · Chiqueti

53 · Dudu

5 · Felipinho

70 · Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno

Atletico-MG

4-3-3

1 Gabriel Delfim

2 Natanael

40 Vitão

13 Lyanco

6 Renan Lodi

7 Fred

8 Maycon

39 Mamady Cissé

28 Tomás Cuello

19 Reinier

11 Bernard

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · Victor Hugo

25 · Tomás Pérez

15 · Kevin Castaño

17 · Igor Gomes

18 · Thiago Borbas

64 · Guilherme Pires

31 · Robert Alves

36 · Kauã Pascini

3 · Léo Duarte

14 · Vitor Hugo

5 · Alexsander

92 · Dudu

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · atletico paranaense winPublished 8 Oct 23:36

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make Atletico Paranaense a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Paranaense win	46%	45%	+1
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Atletico-MG win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Atletico Paranaense or draw	73%	74%	−1
Atletico Paranaense clean sheet	36%	–	–
Atletico-MG clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.0 8.7 4.6 1 12.1 12.7 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.9 4.5 3 4.2 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Paranaense down, Atletico-MG across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,184 Serie A matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 284 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico-MG away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Atletico Paranaense, 1.02 for Atletico-MG. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 8 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–1 ATL · ATL 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–1 ATL

Form · last six in Serie A

ATLETICO PARANAENSE

DWDLDW1–1 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 2–1

ATLETICO-MG

DWLWDW0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	28	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	28	+5	43
8	Santos	28	+2	41
9	Coritiba	28	−6	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	28	+1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	28	−6	34
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	29	−15	24
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense

Atletico-MG

Match statistics

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense

Atletico-MG

Head to head

Form · last six in Serie A

The table