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Atletico-MG v Santos

Atletico-MG

2–1Full time

Santos

Serie A · SUN 11 OCT · Arena MRV

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos ATLETICO-MG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico-MG win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.357

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico-MG win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico-MG was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
47′We said Atletico-MG at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
49′Much as we predicted: Atletico-MG was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–39–21
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–46–19
57′We said Atletico-MG at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
58′11.0 shots for Atletico-MG, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–48–19
66′We said Atletico-MG at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–56–16
71′We said Atletico-MG at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
71′13.0 shots for Atletico-MG, 7.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 24–62–14
77′We said Atletico-MG at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–71–11
77′Atletico-MG have had 16.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 18–71–11
81′We said Atletico-MG at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
87′We said Atletico-MG at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′Gabriel Barbosa scores for Santos on 88′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 0–100–0
93′90′ and it is 1–1: Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza on the scoresheet for Atletico-MG. 1–1 · 0–100–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Willian Arão · Santos
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
96′We published Atletico-MG at 51%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos · Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 96' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Atletico-MG win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Atletico-MG win 18%)
97′Atletico-MG ahead on 90′ through Thiago Borbas. 2–1. 2–1 · 100–0–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 97' Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos · Thiago Borbas
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 97' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 97' Atletico-MG win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 97' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 97' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Atletico-MG win 18%)
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 98' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 98' Atletico-MG win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 98' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 98' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Atletico-MG win 18%)
99′Atletico-MG ahead on 90′ through Thiago Borbas. 2–1. 2–1 · 100–0–0
99′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 99' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 99' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Atletico-MG win 18%)
99′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 99' Atletico-MG win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 99' Atletico-MG win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
102′We published Atletico-MG at 51%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Atletico-MG 2–1 Santos
FTAtletico-MG 2–1 Santos · Atletico-MG win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atletico-MG win51%

Draw25%

Santos win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueArena MRV

RefereeAlex Gomes Stefano

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

4-3-3

Santos

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico-MG

Santos

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Atletico-MG	29	+5	44
8	Santos	29	+2	42

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

PLAYER RATINGS I Lille 1-0 Le Havre: Dilane Bakwa extends unbeaten home run of Ligue 1 provisional leaders Les DoguesGet French Football News · 22 hours ago · Lille, Santos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

4-3-3

1 Gabriel Delfim

2 Natanael

3 Léo Duarte

14 Vitor Hugo

36 Kauã Pascini

15 Kevin Castaño

21 Alan Franco

5 Alexsander

30 Victor Hugo

18 Thiago Borbas

17 Igor Gomes

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · Alan Minda

39 · Mamady Cissé

8 · Maycon

23 · Ángelo Preciado

92 · Dudu

31 · Robert Alves

13 · Lyanco

40 · Vitão

53 · Pedro Tocantins

6 · Renan Lodi

19 · Reinier

29 · Cauã Campos Soares

Santos

4-2-3-1

1 Diogenes

23 Rodinei

4 Lucas Veríssimo

15 Willian Arão

31 Gonzalo Escobar

48 Gustavinho

28 Christian Oliva

8 Gabriel Bontempo

32 Benjamín Rollheiser

7 Everton Cebolinha

9 Gabriel Barbosa

Coach · –

Substitutes

14 · Luan Peres

33 · Rony

11 · Philippe Coutinho

5 · João Schmidt

22 · Álvaro Barreal

34 · João Paulo

81 · Samuel Mendes

18 · Igor Vinícius

30 · Miguelito

17 · Gustavo Caballero

45 · Lima

16 · Thaciano

Our number · atletico-mg winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Atletico-MG a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atletico-mg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico-MG win	51%	44%	+8
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Santos win	23%	29%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−5
Atletico-MG or draw	77%	71%	+6
Atletico-MG clean sheet	37%	–	–
Santos clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.7 7.2 3.7 1 11.7 12.0 5.9 2 9.5 9.4 4.7 3 5.1 5.0 2.5 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico-MG down, Santos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,190 Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 290 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico-MG at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Santos away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Atletico-MG, 1.00 for Santos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–1 SAN · SAN 2–0 ATL · ATL 2–0 SAN

Form · last six in Serie A

ATLETICO-MG

WLWDWD2–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

SANTOS

WWWWWD1–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	29	+32	61
2	Palmeiras	29	+27	60
3	Fluminense	29	+12	51
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	+11	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	+4	48
6	Bahia	29	+7	46
7	Atletico-MG	29	+5	44
8	Santos	29	+2	42
9	Coritiba	29	−10	38
10	RB Bragantino	29	+1	37
11	Sao Paulo	29	−1	36
12	Vitoria	29	−10	36
13	Botafogo	29	−5	35
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
15	Mirassol	29	−9	33
16	Corinthians	29	−4	32
17	Internacional	29	−5	31
18	Gremio	29	−8	30
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	−28	18