Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro prediction · Serie A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico-MGDrawCruzeiro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico-MG 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico-MG are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico-MG 43%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 29%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Atletico-MG v CruzeiroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atletico-MG win43%

Draw28%

Cruzeiro win29%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueMRV Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico-MG

Cruzeiro

8Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Last match: 24 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico-mg winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market39%

Us43%

~~Market~~39%

We make Atletico-MG a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro~~1.34 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 54~~6 v 3

~~The market · Atletico-MG win~~39% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico-MG win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico-MG win	43%	39%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Cruzeiro win	29%	33%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	49%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Atletico-MG or draw	71%	67%	+4
Atletico-MG clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cruzeiro clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.7 9.4 5.0 1 12.2 13.1 6.6 2.3 2 8.3 8.5 4.4 3 3.7 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico-MG down, Cruzeiro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,213 Serie A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 313 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico-MG at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cruzeiro away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Atletico-MG, 1.03 for Cruzeiro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–1 CRU · CRU 1–1 ATL · CRU 1–3 ATL · CRU 1–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 12 Sept

ATLETICO-MG

WDWDWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

CRUZEIRO

LWWLWW1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	31	+36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	+32	66
3	Cruzeiro	32	+5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	31	+12	53
5	Fluminense	31	+10	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	+7	50
7	Bahia	31	+5	49
8	Santos	31	+2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	+1	42
10	RB Bragantino	31	+3	41
11	Botafogo	31	−4	39
12	Coritiba	31	−11	39
13	Vitoria	31	−11	37
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	30	−7	35
16	Corinthians	31	−7	33
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	31	−10	31
19	Remo	32	−16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	30	−32	18