Atletico-MG v Coritiba prediction · Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:01

Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba ATLETICO-MG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atletico-MG win~~60%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico-MG win at 60%.
1′KICK-OFF Atletico-MG v Coritiba
2′Little has changed for our model: Atletico-MG 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–18
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Atletico-MG win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
41′We said Atletico-MG at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–34–18
45′HALF-TIME Atletico-MG 0–0 Coritiba
45′SECOND HALF Atletico-MG 0–0 Coritiba
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico-MG · On: Reinier Jesus Carvalho · Off: Thiago Borbas
47′Atletico-MG have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 45–38–17
49′We said Atletico-MG at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 46–36–17
56′Atletico-MG have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 40–44–16
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Atletico-MG win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
58′We said Atletico-MG at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Atletico-MG win 39%)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Coritiba · On: Rodrigo Rodrigues · Off: Paulo Roberto
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Coritiba · On: Breno Lopes · Off: Joaquin Lavega
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Coritiba · On: Tinga · Off: Fabricio Bustos
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atletico-MG · On: Kevin Castaño · Off: Tomás Pérez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atletico-MG · On: Tomás Cuello · Off: Alan Minda
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atletico-MG · On: Renan Lodi · Off: Kaua Pascini
65′We said Atletico-MG at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Atletico-MG win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
73′We said Atletico-MG at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–62–11
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atletico-MG · On: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva · Off: Mamady Cisse
75′We said Atletico-MG at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–11
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Atletico-MG win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
79′Atletico-MG ahead on 78′ through Igor Gomes. 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba · Igor Gomes (assist Natanael Moreira Milouski)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Atletico-MG win: 60% at kick-off, 91% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Atletico-MG win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
83′We said Atletico-MG at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–0 · 94–6–0
84′We said Atletico-MG at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Coritiba · On: Nicolas Fonseca · Off: Sebastián Gómez
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Coritiba · On: Brian Ocampo · Off: Pedro Rocha
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Bruno Melo · Coritiba
FTFULL TIME Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba
FTAtletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba · Atletico-MG win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico-MG are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico-MG 60%, draw 22%, Coritiba 18%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Atletico-MG v CoritibaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atletico-MG win60%

Draw22%

Coritiba win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueArena MRV

RefereeDavi de Oliveira Lacerda

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

Coritiba

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico-MG

Coritiba

3Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Last match: 12 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Atletico-MG	30	+6	47
11	Coritiba	30	−10	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

1 Gabriel Delfim

2 Natanael

3 Léo Duarte

14 Vitor Hugo

36 K. Pascini

25 T. Pérez

5 Alexsander

27 A. Minda

39 Mamady Cisse

17 Igor Gomes

18 T. Borbas

Coach · E. Domínguez

Substitutes

19 · Reinier

92 · Dudu

31 · Robert

23 · A. Preciado

13 · Lyanco

8 · Maycon

11 · Bernard

15 · K. Castaño

28 · T. Cuello

40 · Vitão

30 · Victor Hugo

6 · Renan Lodi

Coritiba

4-2-3-1

1 Pedro Luccas

14 F. Bustos

23 Tiago Cóser

55 Jacy

26 Bruno Melo

21 Thiago Santos

19 S. Gómez

32 Pedro Rocha

10 Josué

7 J. Lavega

18 Paulo Roberto

Coach · Fernando Seabra

Substitutes

36 · Vini Paulista

5 · N. Fonseca

13 · Keiller

3 · Maicon

17 · B. Ocampo

78 · Renato Marques

4 · Rodrigo Moledo

99 · Rodrigo Rodrigues

2 · Tinga

50 · Tissi

77 · Breno Lopes

6 · Felipe Jonatan

Our number · atletico-mg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:20 · locked at kick-off

60% The market58%

Us60%

~~Market~~58%

We make Atletico-MG a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico-MG v Coritiba~~1.91 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 31 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 39~~7 v 11

~~The market · Atletico-MG win~~58% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico-MG win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 60% now. The market has gone from 64% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico-MG win	60%	58%	+2
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Coritiba win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Atletico-MG or draw	82%	82%	0
Atletico-MG clean sheet	40%	–	–
Coritiba clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.3 5.3 2.6 1 11.1 10.5 4.8 2 10.7 9.7 4.5 3 6.8 6.2 2.8 4 3.3 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico-MG down, Coritiba across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,200 Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico-MG at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Coritiba away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Atletico-MG, 0.92 for Coritiba. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 22:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~COR 2–0 ATL · ATL 1–2 COR · COR 1–2 ATL · COR 0–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie A this season · since 31 Aug

ATLETICO-MG

LWDWDW0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

CORITIBA

WLDLLD3–2 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–5 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	+11	51
5	Bahia	30	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	+2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	+6	47
8	Santos	30	+1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	+3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	−10	39
12	Vitoria	30	−11	36
13	Botafogo	30	−5	36
14	Mirassol	31	−8	36
15	Vasco DA Gama	29	−6	35
16	Corinthians	30	−7	32
17	Internacional	31	−7	32
18	Gremio	30	−8	31
19	Remo	30	−15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	−31	18