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Sfera U20 v Guarani U20

Sfera U20

2–1Full time

Guarani U20

Paulista - U20 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Sfera U20 2–1 Guarani U20 GUARANI U20 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guarani U20 win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.677

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guarani U20 win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Guarani U20 was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 31–26–44
1′KICK-OFF Sfera U20 v Guarani U20
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Sfera U20 0–1 Guarani U20
8′Guarani U20 find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Guarani U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
13′A goal for Sfera U20 on 13′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–28–42
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sfera U20 1–1 Guarani U20
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Guarani U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
45′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Guarani U20
45′HALF-TIME Sfera U20 1–1 Guarani U20
46′SECOND HALF Sfera U20 1–1 Guarani U20
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sfera U20 2–1 Guarani U20
FTSfera U20 2–1 Guarani U20 · Guarani U20 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sfera U20 win31%

Draw25%

Guarani U20 win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guarani u20 winPublished 9 Oct 18:34

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Guarani U20 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sfera U20 win	31%	33%	−2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Guarani U20 win	44%	40%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Sfera U20 or draw	56%	60%	−4
Sfera U20 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Guarani U20 clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.2 9.9 7.4 3.8 1 8.1 11.8 8.6 4.3 2 5.0 7.1 5.2 2.6 3 2.1 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sfera U20 down, Guarani U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,302 Paulista - U20 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games this season, across 333 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sfera U20 at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Guarani U20 away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Sfera U20, 1.50 for Guarani U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GUA 2–0 SFE

Form · last six in Paulista - U20

SFERA U20

LDWLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

GUARANI U20

DWWWDW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RB Bragantino U20	16	+63	45
2	Palmeiras U20	16	+23	39
3	Santos U20	15	+32	38
4	Corinthians U20	15	+29	38
5	Ibrachina U20	16	+28	38
6	Guarani U20	16	+20	38
7	São Paulo U20	16	+21	37
8	Juventus U20	15	+23	32
9	Ferroviária U20	15	+11	28
10	Novorizontino U20	16	+10	28
11	Santo André U20	16	+9	26
12	Desportivo Brasil U20	16	+8	26
13	Portuguesa U20	15	+3	26
14	Sfera U20	16	+11	25
15	Capivariano U20	16	+6	24
16	Água Santa U20	16	−4	24
17	Botafogo SP U20	16	+10	23
18	Osasco Audax U20	16	+4	23
19	XV de Piracicaba U20	16	+3	22
20	Oeste U20	16	0	22
21	Sertãozinho U20	15	−2	20
22	Portuguesa Santista U20	15	−3	20
23	Flamengo SP U20	16	−8	20
24	Ponte Preta U20	15	−9	19
25	EC São Bernardo U20	16	−2	17
26	Gremio Prudente U20	16	−7	17
27	XV de Jaú U20	16	−16	17
28	SC Paulinense SP U20	16	−7	16
29	Ituano U20	16	−10	15
30	União Suzano U20	15	−14	15
31	Referencia U20	14	−10	13
32	Jabaquara U20	15	−13	13
33	União São João U20	14	−4	12
34	Bandeirante U20	16	−24	12
35	São Caetano U20	14	−11	11
36	Velo Clube U20	14	−18	11
37	Itapirense U20	13	−15	10
38	São Bento U20	13	−10	9
39	Mauá U20	14	−21	9
40	América-SP U20	13	−23	9
41	Tanabi SP U20	14	−26	9
42	Mirassol U20	13	−9	8
43	Aguai U20	14	−27	8
44	Porto Football U20	14	−21	7