Santos U20 v Ponte Preta U20 prediction · Paulista

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Santos U20 2–1 Ponte Preta U20 SANTOS U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santos U20 win~~79%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.065

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santos U20 win at 79%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santos U20 was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 79–13–8
1′KICK-OFF Santos U20 v Ponte Preta U20
20′A red card for Santos U20 on 20′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 74–17–9
20′🟥 RED CARD · 20' Santos U20
30′Santos U20 find the net on 30′. 1–0. 1–0 · 91–7–2
30′We published Santos U20 at 79%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Santos U20 1–0 Ponte Preta U20
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Santos U20 win: 79% at kick-off, 91% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 91–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Santos U20 1–0 Ponte Preta U20
46′SECOND HALF Santos U20 1–0 Ponte Preta U20
49′A goal for Santos U20 on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
49′We published Santos U20 at 79%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Santos U20 2–0 Ponte Preta U20
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Santos U20 win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
58′Ponte Preta U20 score on 58′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Santos U20 2–1 Ponte Preta U20
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Santos U20 win: 79% at kick-off, 90% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Santos U20 win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Santos U20 2–1 Ponte Preta U20
FTSantos U20 2–1 Ponte Preta U20 · Santos U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santos U20 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos U20 79%, draw 13%, Ponte Preta U20 8%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Santos U20 v Ponte Preta U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Santos U20 win79%

Draw13%

Ponte Preta U20 win8%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos U20

Ponte Preta U20

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Paulista - U20

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Santos U20	1	+3	3
8	Ponte Preta U20	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santos u20 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 11:09 · locked at kick-off

79% The market71%

Us79%

~~Market~~71%

We make Santos U20 a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santos U20 v Ponte Preta U20~~2.95 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 21 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~2 v 8

~~The market · Santos U20 win~~71% · ours 79%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santos U20 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 80%, 79% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos U20 win	79%	71%	+8
Draw	13%	17%	−4
Ponte Preta U20 win	8%	12%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	71%	66%	+5
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	83%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	50%	47%	+3
Santos U20 or draw	92%	88%	+4
Santos U20 clean sheet	46%	–	–
Ponte Preta U20 clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 2.8 2.0 1 7.3 5.8 2.3 2 10.3 7.9 3.2 3 9.8 7.5 3.0 4 7.2 5.4 2.1 5 4.4 3.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos U20 down, Ponte Preta U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (91.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,316 Paulista - U20 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.4% of games this season, across 347 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos U20 at home: 3.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ponte Preta U20 away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.95 goals for Santos U20, 0.79 for Ponte Preta U20. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PON 1–2 SAN · PON 0–0 SAN · SAN 2–1 PON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 21 Aug

SANTOS U20

WWWWWW7–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

PONTE PRETA U20

LWDWDL1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 6–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026 · U20 Paulista 2026, Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus U20	1	+3	3
2	Santos U20	1	+3	3
3	Ferroviária U20	1	+2	3
4	Portuguesa Santista U20	1	+1	3
5	Portuguesa U20	1	+1	3
6	Corinthians U20	1	+1	3
7	União Suzano U20	1	+1	3
8	Ponte Preta U20	1	−1	0
9	Jabaquara U20	1	−1	0
10	São Bento U20	1	−1	0
11	Mirassol U20	1	−1	0
12	Itapirense U20	1	−2	0
13	América-SP U20	1	−3	0
14	Sertãozinho U20	1	−3	0