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Santo André U20 v Santos U20

Santo André U20
1–4Full time
Santos U20

Paulista - U20 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
Santo André U20 1–4 Santos U20 SANTOS U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Santos U20 win52%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.347
The market’s Brier score0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Santos U20 win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Santos U20 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 25–23–52
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Santo André U20 v Santos U20
  4. 8′Santos U20 score on 7′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–15–75
  5. 8′We said Santos U20 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 10–15–75
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Santo André U20 0–1 Santos U20
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Santos U20 win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 8–17–76
  9. 45′We said Santos U20 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Santo André U20 0–2 Santos U20
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Santo André U20 0–2 Santos U20
  12. 49′Santos U20 find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  13. 49′We said Santos U20 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  14. 49′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Santo André U20 0–2 Santos U20
  15. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' Santos U20 win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
  16. 57′A goal for Santos U20 on 56′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  17. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Santo André U20 0–3 Santos U20
  18. 60′Santo André U20 score on 60′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–3–96
  19. 60′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–3–96
  20. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Santo André U20 1–3 Santos U20
  21. 63′Santo André U20 find the net on 63′. 2–3. 2–3 · 3–16–81
  22. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Santo André U20 2–3 Santos U20
  23. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Santos U20 win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
  24. 64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Santo André U20
  25. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Santos U20 win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
  26. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Santo André U20 1–4 Santos U20
  27. FTFULL TIME Santo André U20 1–4 Santos U20
  28. FTSanto André U20 1–4 Santos U20 · Santos U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santos U20 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santo André U20 25%, draw 23%, Santos U20 52%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Santo André U20 v Santos U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Santo André U20 win25%
Draw23%
Santos U20 win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundQuarter-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santo André U20

Santos U20

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Paulista - U20

Last match: 18 Oct · Paulista - U20

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santos u20 winFirst published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off
52% The market54%
Us52%
Market54%

We make Santos U20 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Santo André U20 v Santos U201.21 – 1.85
Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 4 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W6 D0 L0
The market · Santos U20 win54% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 21 OCT 09:3124 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Santos U20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Santo André U20 win25%22%+3
Draw23%24%−1
Santos U20 win52%54%−2
Over 2.5 goals58%55%+3
Both teams to score58%56%+2
Over 1.5 goals80%77%+3
Over 3.5 goals36%34%+2
Santo André U20 or draw48%46%+2
Santo André U20 clean sheet17%––
Santos U20 clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 5.3 8.8 8.1 5.0 2.4 1 5.7 10.4 9.2 5.7 2.7 2 3.5 6.2 5.6 3.4 3 2.6 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Santo André U20 down, Santos U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSantos U20 3–0 Santo André U20 · Santo André U20 2–1 Santos U20

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 4 Sept

SANTO ANDRÉ U20

WWDWWL2–0 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–3

SANTOS U20

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1