RB Bragantino U20 v Flamengo SP U20 prediction · Paulista

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

RB Bragantino U20 9–0 Flamengo SP U20 RB BRAGANTINO U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RB Bragantino U20 win~~90%

~~The market said~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.015

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.036

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RB Bragantino U20 win at 90%.
1′Much as we predicted: RB Bragantino U20 was 90% before kick-off and our model makes it 92% now. 0–0 · 92–6–2
1′KICK-OFF RB Bragantino U20 v Flamengo SP U20
18′RB Bragantino U20 score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–1
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' RB Bragantino U20 1–0 Flamengo SP U20
45′RB Bragantino U20 find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′Goals are coming at about the 4.3 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' RB Bragantino U20 2–0 Flamengo SP U20
45′HALF-TIME RB Bragantino U20 2–0 Flamengo SP U20
46′SECOND HALF RB Bragantino U20 2–0 Flamengo SP U20
48′A goal for RB Bragantino U20 on 48′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' RB Bragantino U20 3–0 Flamengo SP U20
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' RB Bragantino U20 win: 90% at kick-off, over 99% now
51′RB Bragantino U20 score on 51′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' RB Bragantino U20 4–0 Flamengo SP U20
55′RB Bragantino U20 find the net on 55′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
55′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' RB Bragantino U20 5–0 Flamengo SP U20
76′A goal for RB Bragantino U20 on 75′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
76′6 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' RB Bragantino U20 6–0 Flamengo SP U20
79′RB Bragantino U20 score on 78′ to make it 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' RB Bragantino U20 7–0 Flamengo SP U20
80′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 7–0 · 100–0–0
87′RB Bragantino U20 find the net on 87′. 8–0. 8–0 · 100–0–0
87′8 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 8–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' RB Bragantino U20 8–0 Flamengo SP U20
89′A goal for RB Bragantino U20 on 89′ — 9–0. 9–0 · 100–0–0
89′That is 9, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 9–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' RB Bragantino U20 9–0 Flamengo SP U20
93′A red card for Flamengo SP U20 on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 9–0 · 100–0–0
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Flamengo SP U20
FTFULL TIME RB Bragantino U20 9–0 Flamengo SP U20
FTRB Bragantino U20 9–0 Flamengo SP U20 · RB Bragantino U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RB Bragantino U20 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RB Bragantino U20 90%, draw 7%, Flamengo SP U20 3%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on RB Bragantino U20 v Flamengo SP U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

RB Bragantino U20 win90%

Draw7%

Flamengo SP U20 win3%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RB Bragantino U20

Flamengo SP U20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Paulista - U20

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	RB Bragantino U20	2	+3	6
7	Flamengo SP U20	2	0	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rb bragantino u20 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

90% The market85%

Us90%

~~Market~~85%

We make RB Bragantino U20 a 90% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RB Bragantino U20 v Flamengo SP U20~~3.78 – 0.56

~~Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 14 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~2 v 7

~~The market · RB Bragantino U20 win~~85% · ours 90%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RB Bragantino U20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RB Bragantino U20 win	90%	85%	+5
Draw	7%	11%	−4
Flamengo SP U20 win	3%	4%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	79%	67%	+12
Both teams to score	41%	34%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	92%	82%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	61%	50%	+11
RB Bragantino U20 or draw	97%	96%	+1
RB Bragantino U20 clean sheet	58%	–	–
Flamengo SP U20 clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 11.4%

0123450 1 5.4 3.1 2 9.6 5.3 3 11.4 6.2 4 10.4 5.6 5 7.9 4.2

under 2% 5% 12%+RB Bragantino U20 down, Flamengo SP U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (80.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,310 Paulista - U20 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.1% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RB Bragantino U20 at home: 6.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Flamengo SP U20 away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.78 goals for RB Bragantino U20, 0.56 for Flamengo SP U20. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FLA 0–0 RBB · RBB 3–1 FLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 14 Aug

RB BRAGANTINO U20

WLWWWD4–0 · 0–1 · 8–0 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 0–0

FLAMENGO SP U20

LWLWLD1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · U20 Paulista 2026, Group 3

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Água Santa U20	2	+5	6
2	RB Bragantino U20	2	+3	6
3	Ituano U20	2	+1	4
4	Capivariano U20	2	+1	4
5	Guarani U20	1	+4	3
6	Palmeiras U20	1	+2	3
7	Flamengo SP U20	2	0	3
8	XV de Jaú U20	2	−3	3
9	Tanabi SP U20	2	0	2
10	Osasco Audax U20	2	−1	1
11	Mauá U20	2	−1	1
12	Gremio Prudente U20	2	−2	1
13	Porto Football U20	2	−4	1
14	Sfera U20	2	−2	0
15	Referencia U20	2	−3	0