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Ponte Preta U20 v Santos U20

Ponte Preta U20

1–2Full time

Santos U20

Paulista - U20 · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20 SANTOS U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Santos U20 win~~62%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.215

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santos U20 win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santos U20 was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 17–20–63
1′KICK-OFF Ponte Preta U20 v Santos U20
9′Much as we predicted: Santos U20 was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 17–21–61
10′Much as we predicted: Santos U20 was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 18–21–61
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ponte Preta U20 0–1 Santos U20
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Ponte Preta U20 0–1 Santos U20
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ponte Preta U20 0–2 Santos U20
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Ponte Preta U20 0–2 Santos U20
45′SECOND HALF Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20
67′⚽ GOAL · 34' Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20
67′⚽ GOAL · 46' Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20
67′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20
FTFULL TIME Ponte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20
FTPonte Preta U20 1–2 Santos U20 · Santos U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Ponte Preta U20 win18%

Draw20%

Santos U20 win62%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ponte Preta U20

Santos U20

18Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Santos U20	15	+32	38
24	Ponte Preta U20	15	−9	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santos u20 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

62% The market65%

Us62%

~~Market~~65%

We make Santos U20 a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · santos u20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ponte Preta U20 win	18%	14%	+4
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Santos U20 win	62%	65%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	59%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	52%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Ponte Preta U20 or draw	38%	35%	+3
Ponte Preta U20 clean sheet	12%	–	–
Santos U20 clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 4.3 8.3 9.0 6.6 3.8 1 4.1 8.9 9.2 6.6 3.8 2 2.4 4.8 5.0 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ponte Preta U20 down, Santos U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,308 Paulista - U20 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.1% of games this season, across 339 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ponte Preta U20 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Santos U20 away: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Ponte Preta U20, 2.22 for Santos U20. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PON 0–0 SAN · SAN 2–1 PON

Form · last six in Paulista - U20

PONTE PRETA U20

LLWDWD0–5 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 6–1 · 0–0

SANTOS U20

WWWWWW1–0 · 7–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RB Bragantino U20	17	+63	46
2	São Paulo U20	17	+23	40
3	Corinthians U20	16	+29	39
4	Palmeiras U20	16	+23	39
5	Santos U20	15	+32	38
6	Ibrachina U20	17	+27	38
7	Guarani U20	17	+19	38
8	Juventus U20	16	+21	32
9	Santo André U20	17	+11	29
10	Sfera U20	17	+12	28
11	Ferroviária U20	15	+11	28
12	Novorizontino U20	16	+10	28
13	Capivariano U20	17	+7	27
14	Desportivo Brasil U20	17	+6	26
15	Portuguesa U20	15	+3	26
16	Água Santa U20	16	−4	24
17	Botafogo SP U20	16	+10	23
18	Osasco Audax U20	16	+4	23
19	XV de Piracicaba U20	16	+3	22
20	Oeste U20	16	0	22
21	Portuguesa Santista U20	16	−3	21
22	Flamengo SP U20	17	−8	21
23	Sertãozinho U20	15	−2	20
24	Ponte Preta U20	15	−9	19
25	EC São Bernardo U20	16	−2	17
26	Gremio Prudente U20	16	−7	17
27	XV de Jaú U20	16	−16	17
28	SC Paulinense SP U20	16	−7	16
29	Ituano U20	16	−10	15
30	União Suzano U20	15	−14	15
31	Referencia U20	14	−10	13
32	Jabaquara U20	15	−13	13
33	União São João U20	14	−4	12
34	Bandeirante U20	16	−24	12
35	São Caetano U20	14	−11	11
36	Velo Clube U20	14	−18	11
37	Itapirense U20	13	−15	10
38	São Bento U20	13	−10	9
39	Mauá U20	14	−21	9
40	América-SP U20	13	−23	9
41	Tanabi SP U20	14	−26	9
42	Mirassol U20	13	−9	8
43	Aguai U20	14	−27	8
44	Porto Football U20	14	−21	7