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Palmeiras U20 v Botafogo SP U20

Palmeiras U20
3–0Full time
Botafogo SP U20

Paulista - U20 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Palmeiras U20 3–0 Botafogo SP U20 PALMEIRAS U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Palmeiras U20 win67%
The market said72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.167
The market’s Brier score0.123

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Palmeiras U20 win at 67%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Palmeiras U20 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Palmeiras U20 v Botafogo SP U20
  4. 19′Palmeiras U20 score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
  5. 19′We said Palmeiras U20 at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
  6. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Palmeiras U20 1–0 Botafogo SP U20
  7. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Palmeiras U20 win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  9. 39′Botafogo SP U20 are down to ten from 38′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  10. 39′🟥 RED CARD · 38' Botafogo SP U20
  11. 43′Palmeiras U20 find the net on 42′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  12. 43′We said Palmeiras U20 at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  13. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Palmeiras U20 2–0 Botafogo SP U20
  14. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Palmeiras U20 win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Palmeiras U20 2–0 Botafogo SP U20
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Palmeiras U20 2–0 Botafogo SP U20
  17. 49′A goal for Palmeiras U20 on 48′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Palmeiras U20 3–0 Botafogo SP U20
  19. 50′We said Palmeiras U20 at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 50′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 71′Palmeiras U20 have ten men and Botafogo SP U20 ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Palmeiras U20
  23. FTFULL TIME Palmeiras U20 3–0 Botafogo SP U20
  24. FTPalmeiras U20 3–0 Botafogo SP U20 · Palmeiras U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Palmeiras U20 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Palmeiras U20 67%, draw 20%, Botafogo SP U20 14%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Palmeiras U20 v Botafogo SP U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Palmeiras U20 win67%
Draw20%
Botafogo SP U20 win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Palmeiras U20

Botafogo SP U20

3Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20

Last match: 12 Oct · Paulista - U20

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palmeiras u20 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
67% The market72%
Us67%
Market72%

We make Palmeiras U20 a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Palmeiras U20 v Botafogo SP U202.15 – 0.83
Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 21 AugW5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1
The market · Palmeiras U20 win72% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0018 OCT 13:42
Our probability · Palmeiras U20 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Palmeiras U20 win67%72%−5
Draw20%18%+2
Botafogo SP U20 win14%10%+4
Over 2.5 goals57%55%+2
Both teams to score49%43%+6
Over 1.5 goals79%77%+2
Over 3.5 goals35%35%0
Palmeiras U20 or draw86%90%−4
Palmeiras U20 clean sheet44%––
Botafogo SP U20 clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.5%
0123450 5.8 4.3 1 11.0 9.0 3.7 2 11.5 9.3 3.9 3 8.2 6.6 2.8 4 4.5 3.6 5 2.0
under 2% 5% 12%+Palmeiras U20 down, Botafogo SP U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.17
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsBOT 0–1 PAL · PAL 3–1 BOT · BOT 0–1 PAL · BOT 1–2 PAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 21 Aug

PALMEIRAS U20

WWWDWW2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

BOTAFOGO SP U20

WWDWDL4–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–1