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Ibrachina U20 v Capivariano U20
Ibrachina U20Capivariano U20Paulista - U20 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ibrachina U20 win at 63%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Ibrachina U20 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–16
- 1′KICK-OFF Ibrachina U20 v Capivariano U20
- 4′Capivariano U20 find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 37–25–38
- 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Ibrachina U20 0–1 Capivariano U20
- 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Ibrachina U20 win: 63% at kick-off, 37% now
- 5′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–1 · 37–25–38
- 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Capivariano U20 win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ibrachina U20 win 35%)
- 12′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–26–40
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Ibrachina U20 win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
- 24′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–43
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 27–28–45
- 35′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–47
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ibrachina U20 win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
- 45′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
- 45′HALF-TIME Ibrachina U20 0–1 Capivariano U20
- 46′SECOND HALF Ibrachina U20 0–1 Capivariano U20
- 55′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–29–57
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Ibrachina U20 win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
- 64′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
- 70′PENALTY MISSED · 70' Ibrachina U20
- 74′We said Ibrachina U20 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Ibrachina U20 win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
- 93′A goal for Ibrachina U20 on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 3–95–1
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Ibrachina U20 1–1 Capivariano U20
- 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Capivariano U20 win 1%)
- FTFULL TIME Ibrachina U20 1–1 Capivariano U20
- FTIbrachina U20 1–1 Capivariano U20 · Ibrachina U20 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassIbrachina U20 are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Ibrachina U20 63%, draw 21%, Capivariano U20 16%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Ibrachina U20 win63%Capivariano U20 win16%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00
RoundRound of 16
Match timeline
All events
Ibrachina U20MINCapivariano U20Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ibrachina U20
Capivariano U20
Last match: 10 Oct · Paulista - U20
Last match: 10 Oct · Paulista - U20
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Ibrachina U20 a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrachina U20 win | 63% | 68% | −5 |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 0 |
| Capivariano U20 win | 16% | 11% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Ibrachina U20 or draw | 84% | 89% | −5 |
| Ibrachina U20 clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
| Capivariano U20 clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 21 Aug
IBRACHINA U20
CAPIVARIANO U20