Guarani U20 v Sfera U20 prediction · Paulista

After 90 minutesGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Guarani U20 1–0 Sfera U20 GUARANI U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Guarani U20 win~~61%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.234

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.298

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–0, the score after 90 minutes. Guarani U20 won 3–1 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guarani U20 win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guarani U20 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–17
1′KICK-OFF Guarani U20 v Sfera U20
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Guarani U20 win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
40′A goal for Guarani U20 on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
40′We said Guarani U20 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Guarani U20 1–0 Sfera U20
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Guarani U20 win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' Guarani U20
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Guarani U20 win: 61% at kick-off, 50% now
41′We said Guarani U20 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–33–18
45′HALF-TIME Guarani U20 0–0 Sfera U20
46′SECOND HALF Guarani U20 0–0 Sfera U20
51′We said Guarani U20 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 42–42–16
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Guarani U20 win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
59′We said Guarani U20 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Guarani U20 win 39%)
60′A goal for Guarani U20 on 60′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
60′We said Guarani U20 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Guarani U20 1–0 Sfera U20
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Guarani U20 win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Guarani U20 win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
76′We said Guarani U20 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Guarani U20 win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
84′We said Guarani U20 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
120′We said Guarani U20 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Guarani U20 1–0 Sfera U20
FTGuarani U20 1–0 Sfera U20 after 90 minutes, as graded · Guarani U20 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guarani U20 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guarani U20 61%, draw 22%, Sfera U20 18%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Guarani U20 v Sfera U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Guarani U20 win61%

Draw22%

Sfera U20 win18%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guarani U20

Sfera U20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Paulista - U20

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Guarani U20	1	+4	3
14	Sfera U20	2	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guarani u20 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

61% The market55%

Us61%

~~Market~~55%

We make Guarani U20 a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guarani U20 v Sfera U20~~1.97 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~5 v 14

~~The market · Guarani U20 win~~55% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guarani U20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guarani U20 win	61%	55%	+6
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Sfera U20 win	18%	20%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
Guarani U20 or draw	82%	80%	+2
Guarani U20 clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sfera U20 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.7%

0123450 6.0 5.2 2.5 1 10.7 10.1 4.7 2 10.3 9.5 4.5 3 6.8 6.2 2.9 4 3.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guarani U20 down, Sfera U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,310 Paulista - U20 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.1% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guarani U20 at home: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sfera U20 away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Guarani U20, 0.95 for Sfera U20. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SFE 2–1 GUA · GUA 2–0 SFE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 21 Aug

GUARANI U20

WWWDWL2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

SFERA U20

DWLLWW1–1 · 5–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · U20 Paulista 2026, Group 3

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Água Santa U20	2	+5	6
2	RB Bragantino U20	2	+3	6
3	Ituano U20	2	+1	4
4	Capivariano U20	2	+1	4
5	Guarani U20	1	+4	3
6	Palmeiras U20	1	+2	3
7	Flamengo SP U20	2	0	3
8	XV de Jaú U20	2	−3	3
9	Tanabi SP U20	2	0	2
10	Osasco Audax U20	2	−1	1
11	Mauá U20	2	−1	1
12	Gremio Prudente U20	2	−2	1
13	Porto Football U20	2	−4	1
14	Sfera U20	2	−2	0
15	Referencia U20	2	−3	0