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Guarani U20 v Corinthians U20
Guarani U20Corinthians U20Paulista - U20 · FRI 23 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Guarani U20 win at 43%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Guarani U20 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
- 1′KICK-OFF Guarani U20 v Corinthians U20
- 29′Corinthians U20 find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 29′We said Guarani U20 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Guarani U20 0–1 Corinthians U20
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 14% now
- 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Corinthians U20 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Guarani U20 win 38%)
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Guarani U20 1–1 Corinthians U20
- 46′SECOND HALF Guarani U20 1–1 Corinthians U20
- 48′We said Guarani U20 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 52′A goal for Guarani U20 on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–45–23
- 52′We said Guarani U20 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–45–23
- 52′⚽ GOAL · 45+7' Guarani U20 1–1 Corinthians U20
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+7' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 31% now
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Corinthians U20 win 68%)
- 58′We said Guarani U20 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–22
- 66′Guarani U20 score on 65′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–3
- 66′We said Guarani U20 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–3
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Guarani U20 2–1 Corinthians U20
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 82% now
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Guarani U20 win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 56%)
- 67′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–2
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
- 72′We said Guarani U20 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
- 76′Corinthians U20 find the net on 76′. 2–2. 2–2 · 17–71–13
- 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Guarani U20 2–2 Corinthians U20
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
- 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Guarani U20 win 87%)
- 77′We said Guarani U20 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 2–2 · 16–72–12
- 78′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 15–74–11
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
- 90′We said Guarani U20 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–3
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Guarani U20 win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
- FTFULL TIME Guarani U20 2–2 Corinthians U20
- FTGuarani U20 2–2 Corinthians U20 · Guarani U20 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Guarani U20 are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Guarani U20 43%, draw 27%, Corinthians U20 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off
Guarani U20 win43%Corinthians U20 win30%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 21:00
RoundQuarter-finals
Match timeline
All events
Guarani U20MINCorinthians U20Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Guarani U20
Corinthians U20
Last match: 16 Oct · Paulista - U20
Last match: 16 Oct · Paulista - U20
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Guarani U20 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guarani U20 win | 43% | 30% | +13 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Corinthians U20 win | 30% | 43% | −13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 55% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 74% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 31% | −7 |
| Guarani U20 or draw | 70% | 57% | +13 |
| Guarani U20 clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Corinthians U20 clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 4 Sept
GUARANI U20
CORINTHIANS U20