Add to your Home ScreenGet the appFree · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Paulista - U20 › Desportivo Brasil U20 v São Paulo U20

Back
Brazil flag

Desportivo Brasil U20 v São Paulo U20

Desportivo Brasil U20
0–2Full time
São Paulo U20

Paulista - U20 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56
Desportivo Brasil U20 0–2 São Paulo U20 SÃO PAULO U20 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said São Paulo U20 win49%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.387
The market’s Brier score0.291

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said São Paulo U20 win at 49%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Desportivo Brasil U20 v São Paulo U20
  3. 3′Much as we predicted: São Paulo U20 was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 24–27–49
  4. 5′Much as we predicted: São Paulo U20 was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 24–27–49
  5. 45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Desportivo Brasil U20 0–1 São Paulo U20
  6. 45′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Desportivo Brasil U20
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Desportivo Brasil U20 0–1 São Paulo U20
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Desportivo Brasil U20 0–1 São Paulo U20
  9. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Desportivo Brasil U20 0–2 São Paulo U20
  10. FTFULL TIME Desportivo Brasil U20 0–2 São Paulo U20
  11. FTDesportivo Brasil U20 0–2 São Paulo U20 · São Paulo U20 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Desportivo Brasil U20 win24%
Draw27%
São Paulo U20 win49%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Desportivo Brasil U20

São Paulo U20

16Days since last match16
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
7São Paulo U2016+2137
14Desportivo Brasil U2016+826

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · são paulo u20 winPublished 11 Oct 14:09
49% The market56%
Us49%
Market56%

We make São Paulo U20 a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1711 OCT 11:47
Our probability · são paulo u20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Desportivo Brasil U20 win24%19%+6
Draw27%25%+1
São Paulo U20 win49%56%−7
Over 2.5 goals44%49%−5
Both teams to score46%49%−3
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals23%28%−5
Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw51%44%+7
Desportivo Brasil U20 clean sheet23%––
São Paulo U20 clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.6 13.0 9.6 4.8 1 8.1 12.0 8.7 4.4 2 3.9 5.7 4.2 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Desportivo Brasil U20 down, São Paulo U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsDES 0–1 SAO · SAO 4–3 DES · SAO 6–0 DES · DES 1–1 SAO

Form · last six in Paulista - U20

DESPORTIVO BRASIL U20

DLLDWD1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

SÃO PAULO U20

WWWWDW2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1RB Bragantino U2017+6346
2Corinthians U2016+2939
3Palmeiras U2016+2339
4Santos U2015+3238
5Ibrachina U2017+2738
6Guarani U2017+1938
7São Paulo U2016+2137
8Juventus U2016+2132
9Santo André U2017+1129
10Sfera U2017+1228
11Ferroviária U2015+1128
12Novorizontino U2016+1028
13Capivariano U2017+727
14Desportivo Brasil U2016+826
15Portuguesa U2015+326
16Água Santa U2016−424
17Botafogo SP U2016+1023
18Osasco Audax U2016+423
19XV de Piracicaba U2016+322
20Oeste U2016022
21Portuguesa Santista U2016−321
22Flamengo SP U2017−821
23Sertãozinho U2015−220
24Ponte Preta U2015−919
25EC São Bernardo U2016−217
26Gremio Prudente U2016−717
27XV de Jaú U2016−1617
28SC Paulinense SP U2016−716
29Ituano U2016−1015
30União Suzano U2015−1415
31Referencia U2014−1013
32Jabaquara U2015−1313
33União São João U2014−412
34Bandeirante U2016−2412
35São Caetano U2014−1111
36Velo Clube U2014−1811
37Itapirense U2013−1510
38São Bento U2013−109
39Mauá U2014−219
40América-SP U2013−239
41Tanabi SP U2014−269
42Mirassol U2013−98
43Aguai U2014−278
44Porto Football U2014−217

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.