Capivariano U20 v RB Bragantino U20 prediction · Paulista

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Capivariano U20 0–1 RB Bragantino U20 RB BRAGANTINO U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RB Bragantino U20 win~~65%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.186

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.122

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RB Bragantino U20 win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF Capivariano U20 v RB Bragantino U20
2′Much as we predicted: RB Bragantino U20 was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 16–19–64
10′A goal for RB Bragantino U20 on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–11–84
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Capivariano U20 0–1 RB Bragantino U20
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' RB Bragantino U20 win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
11′We published RB Bragantino U20 at 65%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 5–11–84
12′GOAL DISALLOWED · 12' RB Bragantino U20
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' RB Bragantino U20 win: 65% at kick-off, 62% now
29′A goal for RB Bragantino U20 on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–12–83
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Capivariano U20 0–1 RB Bragantino U20
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' RB Bragantino U20 win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 5–12–83
45′HALF-TIME Capivariano U20 0–1 RB Bragantino U20
46′SECOND HALF Capivariano U20 0–1 RB Bragantino U20
57′We published RB Bragantino U20 at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 3–13–85
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' RB Bragantino U20 win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
76′We published RB Bragantino U20 at 65%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
84′We published RB Bragantino U20 at 65%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' RB Bragantino U20 win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Capivariano U20 0–1 RB Bragantino U20
FTCapivariano U20 0–1 RB Bragantino U20 · RB Bragantino U20 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RB Bragantino U20 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Capivariano U20 16%, draw 19%, RB Bragantino U20 65%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Capivariano U20 v RB Bragantino U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Capivariano U20 win16%

Draw19%

RB Bragantino U20 win65%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundQuarter-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Capivariano U20

RB Bragantino U20

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Paulista - U20

Last match: 16 Oct · Paulista - U20

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	RB Bragantino U20	2	+3	6
4	Capivariano U20	2	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rb bragantino u20 winFirst published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

65% The market72%

Us65%

~~Market~~72%

We make RB Bragantino U20 a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Capivariano U20 v RB Bragantino U20~~0.98 – 2.25

~~Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~4 v 2

~~The market · RB Bragantino U20 win~~72% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RB Bragantino U20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Capivariano U20 win	16%	11%	+5
Draw	19%	18%	+1
RB Bragantino U20 win	65%	72%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	49%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Capivariano U20 or draw	35%	28%	+7
Capivariano U20 clean sheet	12%	–	–
RB Bragantino U20 clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.8%

0123450 4.4 8.9 9.8 7.3 4.3 2.11 4.0 8.8 9.2 6.8 3.9 2 2.1 4.3 4.6 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Capivariano U20 down, RB Bragantino U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,319 Paulista - U20 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Capivariano U20 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). RB Bragantino U20 away: 2.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Capivariano U20, 2.25 for RB Bragantino U20. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RBB 3–1 CAP · CAP 4–1 RBB · RBB 1–1 CAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Paulista - U20 this season · since 4 Sept

CAPIVARIANO U20

WDLWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

RB BRAGANTINO U20

LWWWDW0–1 · 8–0 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 9–0

The table

2026 · U20 Paulista 2026, Group 3

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Água Santa U20	2	+5	6
2	RB Bragantino U20	2	+3	6
3	Ituano U20	2	+1	4
4	Capivariano U20	2	+1	4
5	Guarani U20	1	+4	3
6	Palmeiras U20	1	+2	3
7	Flamengo SP U20	2	0	3
8	XV de Jaú U20	2	−3	3
9	Tanabi SP U20	2	0	2
10	Osasco Audax U20	2	−1	1
11	Mauá U20	2	−1	1
12	Gremio Prudente U20	2	−2	1
13	Porto Football U20	2	−4	1
14	Sfera U20	2	−2	0
15	Referencia U20	2	−3	0