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Capivariano U20 v Ibrachina U20

Capivariano U20

2–1Full time

Ibrachina U20

Paulista - U20 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Capivariano U20 2–1 Ibrachina U20 IBRACHINA U20 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ibrachina U20 win~~46%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.804

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.925

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ibrachina U20 win at 46%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Ibrachina U20 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 27–27–46
4′KICK-OFF Capivariano U20 v Ibrachina U20
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Capivariano U20 1–0 Ibrachina U20
45′A goal for Capivariano U20 on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–25–11
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ibrachina U20 win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Capivariano U20 win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Ibrachina U20 win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Capivariano U20 1–0 Ibrachina U20
48′We said Ibrachina U20 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 65–25–10
48′SECOND HALF Capivariano U20 1–0 Ibrachina U20
58′⚽ GOAL · 56' Capivariano U20 2–0 Ibrachina U20
84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Capivariano U20 2–1 Ibrachina U20
FTFULL TIME Capivariano U20 2–1 Ibrachina U20
FTCapivariano U20 2–1 Ibrachina U20 · Ibrachina U20 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Capivariano U20 win28%

Draw26%

Ibrachina U20 win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ibrachina u20 winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

46% The market51%

Us46%

~~Market~~51%

We make Ibrachina U20 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ibrachina u20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Capivariano U20 win	28%	23%	+5
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Ibrachina U20 win	46%	51%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−1
Capivariano U20 or draw	54%	49%	+4
Capivariano U20 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ibrachina U20 clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.3 11.2 8.4 4.3 1 8.1 12.1 8.7 4.4 2 4.5 6.5 4.7 2.4 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Capivariano U20 down, Ibrachina U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,306 Paulista - U20 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.1% of games this season, across 337 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Capivariano U20 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ibrachina U20 away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Capivariano U20, 1.49 for Ibrachina U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CAP 0–1 IBR

Form · last six in Paulista - U20

CAPIVARIANO U20

DLWDLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

IBRACHINA U20

LWDWDW0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RB Bragantino U20	17	+63	46
2	Corinthians U20	16	+29	39
3	Palmeiras U20	16	+23	39
4	Santos U20	15	+32	38
5	Ibrachina U20	16	+28	38
6	Guarani U20	17	+19	38
7	São Paulo U20	16	+21	37
8	Juventus U20	16	+21	32
9	Santo André U20	17	+11	29
10	Sfera U20	17	+12	28
11	Ferroviária U20	15	+11	28
12	Novorizontino U20	16	+10	28
13	Desportivo Brasil U20	16	+8	26
14	Portuguesa U20	15	+3	26
15	Capivariano U20	16	+6	24
16	Água Santa U20	16	−4	24
17	Botafogo SP U20	16	+10	23
18	Osasco Audax U20	16	+4	23
19	XV de Piracicaba U20	16	+3	22
20	Oeste U20	16	0	22
21	Portuguesa Santista U20	16	−3	21
22	Flamengo SP U20	17	−8	21
23	Sertãozinho U20	15	−2	20
24	Ponte Preta U20	15	−9	19
25	EC São Bernardo U20	16	−2	17
26	Gremio Prudente U20	16	−7	17
27	XV de Jaú U20	16	−16	17
28	SC Paulinense SP U20	16	−7	16
29	Ituano U20	16	−10	15
30	União Suzano U20	15	−14	15
31	Referencia U20	14	−10	13
32	Jabaquara U20	15	−13	13
33	União São João U20	14	−4	12
34	Bandeirante U20	16	−24	12
35	São Caetano U20	14	−11	11
36	Velo Clube U20	14	−18	11
37	Itapirense U20	13	−15	10
38	São Bento U20	13	−10	9
39	Mauá U20	14	−21	9
40	América-SP U20	13	−23	9
41	Tanabi SP U20	14	−26	9
42	Mirassol U20	13	−9	8
43	Aguai U20	14	−27	8
44	Porto Football U20	14	−21	7