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Botafogo SP U20 v Palmeiras U20

Botafogo SP U20

0–1Full time

Palmeiras U20

Paulista - U20 · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Botafogo SP U20 0–1 Palmeiras U20 PALMEIRAS U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Palmeiras U20 win~~47%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.422

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Palmeiras U20 win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Palmeiras U20 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
1′KICK-OFF Botafogo SP U20 v Palmeiras U20
3′Little has changed for our model: Palmeiras U20 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
45′SECOND HALF Botafogo SP U20 0–0 Palmeiras U20
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Botafogo SP U20 0–1 Palmeiras U20
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Botafogo SP U20 0–1 Palmeiras U20
67′⚽ GOAL · 48' Botafogo SP U20 0–1 Palmeiras U20
FTFULL TIME Botafogo SP U20 0–1 Palmeiras U20
FTBotafogo SP U20 0–1 Palmeiras U20 · Palmeiras U20 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Botafogo SP U20 win28%

Draw25%

Palmeiras U20 win47%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Botafogo SP U20

Palmeiras U20

16Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Palmeiras U20	16	+23	39
17	Botafogo SP U20	16	+10	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palmeiras u20 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

47% The market67%

Us47%

~~Market~~67%

We make Palmeiras U20 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · palmeiras u20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botafogo SP U20 win	28%	12%	+16
Draw	25%	21%	+4
Palmeiras U20 win	47%	67%	−20
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	55%	47%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Botafogo SP U20 or draw	53%	33%	+20
Botafogo SP U20 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Palmeiras U20 clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.7 9.7 7.8 4.3 1 7.0 11.4 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 4.3 6.7 5.3 2.9 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botafogo SP U20 down, Palmeiras U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,308 Paulista - U20 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Paulista - U20 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.1% of games this season, across 339 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botafogo SP U20 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Palmeiras U20 away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Botafogo SP U20, 1.62 for Palmeiras U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PAL 3–1 BOT · BOT 0–1 PAL · BOT 1–2 PAL · BOT 2–3 PAL

Form · last six in Paulista - U20

BOTAFOGO SP U20

WWWDWD2–1 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–0

PALMEIRAS U20

WWWWDW3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RB Bragantino U20	17	+63	46
2	São Paulo U20	17	+23	40
3	Corinthians U20	16	+29	39
4	Palmeiras U20	16	+23	39
5	Santos U20	15	+32	38
6	Ibrachina U20	17	+27	38
7	Guarani U20	17	+19	38
8	Juventus U20	16	+21	32
9	Santo André U20	17	+11	29
10	Sfera U20	17	+12	28
11	Ferroviária U20	15	+11	28
12	Novorizontino U20	16	+10	28
13	Capivariano U20	17	+7	27
14	Desportivo Brasil U20	17	+6	26
15	Portuguesa U20	15	+3	26
16	Água Santa U20	16	−4	24
17	Botafogo SP U20	16	+10	23
18	Osasco Audax U20	16	+4	23
19	XV de Piracicaba U20	16	+3	22
20	Oeste U20	16	0	22
21	Portuguesa Santista U20	16	−3	21
22	Flamengo SP U20	17	−8	21
23	Sertãozinho U20	15	−2	20
24	Ponte Preta U20	15	−9	19
25	EC São Bernardo U20	16	−2	17
26	Gremio Prudente U20	16	−7	17
27	XV de Jaú U20	16	−16	17
28	SC Paulinense SP U20	16	−7	16
29	Ituano U20	16	−10	15
30	União Suzano U20	15	−14	15
31	Referencia U20	14	−10	13
32	Jabaquara U20	15	−13	13
33	União São João U20	14	−4	12
34	Bandeirante U20	16	−24	12
35	São Caetano U20	14	−11	11
36	Velo Clube U20	14	−18	11
37	Itapirense U20	13	−15	10
38	São Bento U20	13	−10	9
39	Mauá U20	14	−21	9
40	América-SP U20	13	−23	9
41	Tanabi SP U20	14	−26	9
42	Mirassol U20	13	−9	8
43	Aguai U20	14	−27	8
44	Porto Football U20	14	−21	7