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Atlético Mineiro U20 v Cruzeiro U20

Atlético Mineiro U20
4–3Full time
Cruzeiro U20

Mineiro U20 · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30
Atlético Mineiro U20 4–3 Cruzeiro U20 ATLÉTICO MINEIRO U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Atlético Mineiro U20 win54%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.326
The market’s Brier score0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Mineiro U20 win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Mineiro U20 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–19–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atlético Mineiro U20 v Cruzeiro U20
  4. 20′A goal for Atlético Mineiro U20 on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–15–12
  5. 20′We said Atlético Mineiro U20 at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–15–12
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Atlético Mineiro U20 1–0 Cruzeiro U20
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 73% now
  8. 25′Atlético Mineiro U20 score on 24′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–4
  9. 25′We said Atlético Mineiro U20 at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–4
  10. 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Atlético Mineiro U20 2–0 Cruzeiro U20
  11. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 89% now
  12. 28′Cruzeiro U20 find the net on 28′. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–16–11
  13. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Atlético Mineiro U20 2–1 Cruzeiro U20
  14. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 73% now
  15. 38′A goal for Atlético Mineiro U20 on 38′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 90–7–3
  16. 38′We said Atlético Mineiro U20 at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–1 · 90–7–3
  17. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Atlético Mineiro U20 3–1 Cruzeiro U20
  18. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Atlético Mineiro U20 3–1 Cruzeiro U20
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Atlético Mineiro U20 3–1 Cruzeiro U20
  21. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 74% now
  22. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
  23. 62′Atlético Mineiro U20 have ten men and Cruzeiro U20 ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  24. 62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Atlético Mineiro U20
  25. 62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Cruzeiro U20
  26. 63′Red cards for both sides: Atlético Mineiro U20 down to ten, Cruzeiro U20 to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  27. 63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Cruzeiro U20
  28. 63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Atlético Mineiro U20
  29. 64′Atlético Mineiro U20 have nine men and Cruzeiro U20 nine after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  30. 65′We said Atlético Mineiro U20 at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  31. 73′Cruzeiro U20 score on 73′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 81–16–3
  32. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Atlético Mineiro U20 3–2 Cruzeiro U20
  33. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
  34. 74′We said Atlético Mineiro U20 at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 3–2 · 82–15–3
  35. 75′5 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 83–15–2
  36. 81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Atlético Mineiro U20
  37. 82′Red cards for both sides: Atlético Mineiro U20 down to eight, Cruzeiro U20 to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  38. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
  39. 98′Cruzeiro U20 find the net on 90′. 3–3. 3–3 · 3–96–2
  40. 98′A goal for Atlético Mineiro U20 on 90′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  41. 98′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Atlético Mineiro U20 3–3 Cruzeiro U20
  42. 98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+8' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
  43. 98′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+8' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Atlético Mineiro U20 win 98%)
  44. 98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Atlético Mineiro U20 4–3 Cruzeiro U20
  45. 98′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+8' Atlético Mineiro U20 win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
  46. 98′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+8' Atlético Mineiro U20 win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 96%)
  47. 99′7 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  48. FTFULL TIME Atlético Mineiro U20 4–3 Cruzeiro U20
  49. FTAtlético Mineiro U20 4–3 Cruzeiro U20 · Atlético Mineiro U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Mineiro U20 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Mineiro U20 54%, draw 19%, Cruzeiro U20 27%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Mineiro U20 v Cruzeiro U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Mineiro U20 win54%
Draw19%
Cruzeiro U20 win27%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00

RoundFinal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Mineiro U20

Cruzeiro U20

5Days since last match11

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20

Last match: 8 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Atlético Mineiro U2021+3946
2Cruzeiro U2021+2042

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético mineiro u20 winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
54% The market37%
Us54%
Market37%

We make Atlético Mineiro U20 a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atlético Mineiro U20 v Cruzeiro U202.42 – 1.71
Form · last six in Mineiro U20 this season · since 24 AugW5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 46 v 421 v 2
The market · Atlético Mineiro U20 win37% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 13 OCT 05:3219 OCT 18:36
Our probability · Atlético Mineiro U20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atlético Mineiro U20 win54%37%+17
Draw19%26%−7
Cruzeiro U20 win27%37%−10
Over 2.5 goals77%58%+19
Both teams to score74%61%+13
Over 1.5 goals91%79%+12
Over 3.5 goals59%37%+22
Atlético Mineiro U20 or draw73%63%+10
Atlético Mineiro U20 clean sheet19%––
Cruzeiro U20 clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%
0123450 2.9 2.4 1 4.1 6.7 5.6 3.2 2 4.8 7.9 6.6 3.8 3 3.8 6.3 5.3 3.0 4 2.3 3.9 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Mineiro U20 down, Cruzeiro U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.54 of 7
Both scored5 of 7
Last meetingsATL 0–0 CRU · CRU 3–2 ATL · CRU 2–1 ATL · ATL 1–1 CRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Mineiro U20 this season · since 24 Aug

ATLÉTICO MINEIRO U20

WWLWWW3–0 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 4–2 · 5–1 · 3–1

CRUZEIRO U20

WWWDLW7–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Atlético Mineiro U2021+3946
2Cruzeiro U2021+2042
3Athletic Club MG U2021+1038
4Nacional de Muriae U2020+636
5América Mineiro U2021+1935
6Coimbra U2021+330
7Boston City U2021+229
8Itabirito U2020−625
9Betim U2019−1720
10Inter de Minas U2014−318
11Sao Joao del Rei U2014+216
12Villa Real U2014−916
13Social U2019−2616
14Minas Boca U2014−1810
15Uberabinha U2014−224

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.