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Santa Catarina v Joinville

Santa Catarina

0–3Full time

Joinville

Copa Santa Catarina · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Santa Catarina 0–3 Joinville SANTA CATARINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santa Catarina win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Santa Catarina win60%

Draw24%

Joinville win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santa catarina winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Santa Catarina a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Catarina win	60%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Joinville win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Santa Catarina or draw	84%	–	–
Santa Catarina clean sheet	45%	–	–
Joinville clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 8.2 5.9 2.5 1 13.4 11.3 4.4 2 12.0 9.6 3.8 3 7.0 5.6 2.2 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Catarina down, Joinville across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 405,820 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 10 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Santa Catarina play in the Serie D, Joinville in the Catarinense - 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Santa Catarina are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in this competition in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Santa Catarina, 0.80 for Joinville. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2023

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Copa Santa Catarina

SANTA CATARINA

LDWDWL2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

JOINVILLE

LLWLWW1–2 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marcílio Dias	6	+6	11
2	Figueirense	4	+3	10
3	Hercílio Luz	4	+3	9
4	Joinville	5	+2	9
5	Santa Catarina	4	+1	7
6	Barra	4	−1	3
7	Metropolitano	4	−5	3
8	Nação	6	−6	3
9	Blumenau	5	−3	2