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Nação v Marcílio Dias
Copa Santa Catarina · FRI 9 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Marcílio Dias win at 68%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Nação v Marcílio Dias
- 2′Much as we predicted: Marcílio Dias was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 13–20–68
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Marcílio Dias win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
- 37′We said Marcílio Dias at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 14–30–56
- 42′We said Marcílio Dias at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 14–32–54
- 45′HALF-TIME Nação 0–0 Marcílio Dias
- 46′SECOND HALF Nação 0–0 Marcílio Dias
- FTNação 0–0 Marcílio Dias · Marcílio Dias win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
FRI 9 OCT · 19:00
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Marcílio Dias a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.1.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 63% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nação win | 12% | 14% | −2 |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | −3 |
| Marcílio Dias win | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Nação or draw | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Nação clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
| Marcílio Dias clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2023Form · last six in Copa Santa Catarina
NAÇÃO
MARCÍLIO DIAS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  Figueirense | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Hercílio Luz | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Joinville | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Santa Catarina | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Barra | 4 | −1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Metropolitano | 4 | −5 | 3 |
| 8 |  Blumenau | 5 | −3 | 2 |
| 9 | Nação | 5 | −6 | 2 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.