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Nação v Blumenau
NaçãoBlumenauCopa Santa Catarina · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Blumenau win at 55%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Blumenau 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 19–26–55
- 1′KICK-OFF Nação v Blumenau
- 37′Blumenau score on 36′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–81
- 37′We said Blumenau at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 4–15–81
- 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Nação 0–1 Blumenau
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Blumenau win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
- 38′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 4–15–81
- 45′HALF-TIME Nação 0–1 Blumenau
- 46′SECOND HALF Nação 0–1 Blumenau
- 60′We said Blumenau at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
- 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Blumenau win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
- 75′We said Blumenau at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
- 84′We said Blumenau at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Blumenau win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
- FTFULL TIME Nação 0–1 Blumenau
- FTNação 0–1 Blumenau · Blumenau win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Blumenau are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Nação 19%, draw 26%, Blumenau 55%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 46%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Nação win19%Blumenau win55%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00
RoundGroup stage · matchday 7
Match timeline
All events
NaçãoMINBlumenauEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Nação
Blumenau
Last match: 9 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina
Last match: 26 Sept · Copa Santa Catarina
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Blumenau a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nação win | 19% | 22% | −3 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 0 |
| Blumenau win | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 51% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 28% | −4 |
| Nação or draw | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Nação clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Blumenau clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 29 Aug
NAÇÃO
BLUMENAU