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Metropolitano v Santa Catarina

Metropolitano
3–0Full time
Santa Catarina

Copa Santa Catarina · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01
Metropolitano 3–0 Santa Catarina SANTA CATARINA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Santa Catarina win45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.785

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Catarina win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Santa Catarina was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Metropolitano v Santa Catarina
  4. 6′A goal for Metropolitano on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 55–23–22
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 4' Metropolitano 1–0 Santa Catarina
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Santa Catarina win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
  7. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Metropolitano win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Santa Catarina win 22%)
  8. 7′We said Santa Catarina at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 55–23–22
  9. 11′Metropolitano score on 11′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 79–13–8
  10. 11′We said Santa Catarina at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–0 · 79–13–8
  11. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Metropolitano 2–0 Santa Catarina
  12. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Santa Catarina win: 45% at kick-off, 8% now
  13. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Santa Catarina win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  14. 32′We said Santa Catarina at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–11–4
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Metropolitano 2–0 Santa Catarina
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Metropolitano 2–0 Santa Catarina
  17. 53′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  18. 94′Metropolitano find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 94′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Metropolitano 3–0 Santa Catarina
  21. FTFULL TIME Metropolitano 3–0 Santa Catarina
  22. FTMetropolitano 3–0 Santa Catarina · Santa Catarina win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santa Catarina are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metropolitano 29%, draw 26%, Santa Catarina 45%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Metropolitano v Santa CatarinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Metropolitano win29%
Draw26%
Santa Catarina win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metropolitano

Santa Catarina

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

Last match: 10 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santa catarina winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make Santa Catarina a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Metropolitano v Santa Catarina1.18 – 1.55
Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 29 AugW1 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 18:35
Our probability · Santa Catarina win

Published at 48%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Metropolitano win29%––
Draw26%––
Santa Catarina win45%––
Over 2.5 goals51%––
Both teams to score55%––
Over 1.5 goals76%––
Over 3.5 goals29%––
Metropolitano or draw55%––
Metropolitano clean sheet21%––
Santa Catarina clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 7.0 9.8 7.9 4.1 1 7.4 12.3 9.2 4.8 2 4.5 7.0 5.4 2.8 3 2.8 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Metropolitano down, Santa Catarina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsMET 1–1 SAN · MET 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 29 Aug

METROPOLITANO

LLWLD2–4 · 2–5 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–3

SANTA CATARINA

WDWLL1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3