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Metropolitano v Nação
MetropolitanoNaçãoCopa Santa Catarina · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Metropolitano win at 66%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Metropolitano 66% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–21–14
- 1′KICK-OFF Metropolitano v Nação
- 11′Metropolitano find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Metropolitano 1–0 Nação
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Metropolitano win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
- 12′We said Metropolitano at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
- 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 85–11–3
- 45′We said Metropolitano at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 50–35–14
- 45′HALF-TIME Metropolitano 1–1 Nação
- 46′A goal for Nação on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 50–36–14
- 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Metropolitano 1–1 Nação
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Metropolitano win: 66% at kick-off, 50% now
- 46′SECOND HALF Metropolitano 1–1 Nação
- 47′We said Metropolitano at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–36–14
- 51′Nação score on 51′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 17–30–53
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Metropolitano 1–2 Nação
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Metropolitano win: 66% at kick-off, 17% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Nação win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Metropolitano win 47%)
- 52′We said Metropolitano at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–2 · 17–30–54
- 52′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 17–30–54
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Metropolitano win: 66% at kick-off, 16% now
- 56′We said Metropolitano at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–29–56
- 65′We said Metropolitano at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–27–63
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Metropolitano win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
- 75′We said Metropolitano at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
- 93′Metropolitano find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 3–95–1
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Metropolitano 2–2 Nação
- 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Nação win 97%)
- 94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–97–1
- FTFULL TIME Metropolitano 2–2 Nação
- FTMetropolitano 2–2 Nação · Metropolitano win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Metropolitano are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Metropolitano 66%, draw 21%, Nação 14%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Metropolitano win66%Nação win14%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00
RoundGroup stage · matchday 8
Match timeline
All events
MetropolitanoMINNaçãoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Metropolitano
Nação
Last match: 17 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina
Last match: 18 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Metropolitano a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitano win | 66% | – | – |
| Draw | 21% | – | – |
| Nação win | 14% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – | – |
| Metropolitano or draw | 86% | – | – |
| Metropolitano clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
| Nação clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 30 Aug
METROPOLITANO
NAÇÃO